Monitoring schemes and indicators are currently under development to enable the assessment of the economic, social, political, and environmental impacts of bioeconomic transitions and better inform bioeconomic policy-making. Such transitions generally mean reduction in fossil resource use through innovative, clean technologies that can enable substitution of biogenic resources for fossil resources. The concept of bioeconomy transition is not yet well embedded in current monitoring schemes. Proper framing and a quantitative indicator for measuring the advancement and status of bioeconomy transitions has been missing up to now. This research aims to lay some groundwork for monitoring transitions from fossil-based to bio-based economies by adapting an existing bioeconomic framework and applying a newly developed indicator: the Substitution Share Indicator (SSI). This indicator relates bio-based substitute products to their fossil-based counterparts and accounts for indirect fossil resource flows, which are estimated using a bottom-up approach, based on life-cycle inventory data, and a top-down approach, based on input–output data. The innovative indicator is tested and validated for the first time in the case of transport fuels and plastics sector in Germany. The SSI in the German transport fuels sector is currently relatively low, at 3.1% (bottom-up approach) to 3.4% (top-down approach). It is even lower in the plastics sector, at 0.09% (bottom-up approach) to 0.6% (top-down approach). Major policy efforts need to be undertaken in Germany, focused not only on the growing bioeconomy but on substitution effects as well. Future policies should provide incentives for increasing production of innovative bio-based substitute goods, improving the fossil resource use efficiency of existing fossil- and bio-based products, and lowering consumption of fossil-based products. Such efforts should be reflected in the SSI and signal bioeconomy transition. Before the widespread use of the indicator for policy formulation and analysis, further advancement is recommended. A hybrid approach integrating process data into input–output data would be expedient for improving the SSI in terms of credibility, measurability and robustness. Linkage to relevant indicators for sustainability assessment of transitions is equally important for effectively monitoring sustainable bioeconomy transitions.

目前正在制定监测计划和指标，以评估生物经济转型对经济，社会，政治和环境的影响，并更好地为生物经济决策提供依据。这种过渡通常意味着通过创新，清洁的技术减少化石资源的使用，这些技术可以使生物资源替代化石资源。生物经济过渡的概念尚未很好地嵌入当前的监测方案中。迄今为止，缺少用于衡量生物经济转型的进展和状况的适当框架和定量指标。这项研究旨在通过调整现有的生物经济框架并应用新开发的指标，为监测从化石向生物经济的过渡奠定基础。替代份额指标（SSI）。该指标将基于生物的替代产品与其基于化石的同类产品联系起来，并说明了间接化石资源流动，这是使用自下而上的方法（基于生命周期清单数据）和自上而下的方法（基于输入）进行估算–输出数据。该创新指标首次在德国的运输燃料和塑料行业进行了测试和验证。目前，德国运输燃料部门的SSI相对较低，从3.1％（自下而上的方法）降低到3.4％（自上而下的方法）。在塑料领域，这一比例甚至更低，为0.09％（自下而上的方法）至0.6％（自上而下的方法）。德国需要做出重大政策努力，不仅要关注不断增长的生物经济，而且还要关注替代效应。未来的政策应为增加创新的生物基替代产品的生产，提高现有化石和生物基产品的化石资源利用效率以及降低化石产品的消费量提供激励。此类努力应在SSI和信号生物经济转型中得到体现。在广泛使用该指标进行政策制定和分析之前，建议进一步发展。将过程数据集成到输入-输出数据中的混合方法对于在可信度，可度量性和鲁棒性方面提高SSI而言将是有利的。与相关指标挂钩以进行转型的可持续性评估对于有效监测可持续生物经济转型也同样重要。提高现有化石和生物基产品的化石资源利用效率，并降低化石基产品的消耗。此类努力应在SSI和信号生物经济转型中得到体现。在广泛使用该指标进行政策制定和分析之前，建议进一步发展。将过程数据集成到输入-输出数据中的混合方法对于在可信度，可度量性和鲁棒性方面提高SSI而言将是有利的。与相关指标挂钩以进行过渡的可持续性评估对于有效监测可持续的生物经济过渡也同样重要。提高现有化石和生物基产品的化石资源利用效率，并降低化石基产品的消耗。此类努力应在SSI和信号生物经济转型中得到体现。在广泛使用该指标进行政策制定和分析之前，建议进一步发展。将过程数据集成到输入-输出数据中的混合方法对于在可信度，可度量性和鲁棒性方面提高SSI而言将是有利的。与相关指标挂钩以进行过渡的可持续性评估对于有效监测可持续的生物经济过渡也同样重要。在广泛使用该指标进行政策制定和分析之前，建议进一步发展。将过程数据集成到输入-输出数据中的混合方法对于在可信度，可度量性和鲁棒性方面提高SSI而言将是有利的。与相关指标挂钩以进行转型的可持续性评估对于有效监测可持续生物经济转型也同样重要。在广泛使用该指标进行政策制定和分析之前，建议进一步发展。将过程数据集成到输入-输出数据中的混合方法对于在可信度，可度量性和鲁棒性方面提高SSI而言将是有利的。与相关指标挂钩以进行过渡的可持续性评估对于有效监测可持续的生物经济过渡也同样重要。