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Validation of the CAMD Score in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection Receiving Antiviral Therapy.
Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology ( IF 7.958 ) Pub Date : 2019-06-25 , DOI: 10.1016/j.cgh.2019.06.028
Seung Up Kim,Yeon Seok Seo,Han Ah Lee,Mi Na Kim,Eun Hwa Kim,Ha Yan Kim,Yu Rim Lee,Hye Won Lee,Jun Yong Park,Do Young Kim,Sang Hoon Ahn,Kwang-Hyub Han,Seong Gyu Hwang,Kyu Sung Rim,Soon Ho Um,Won Young Tak,Young Oh Kweon,Beom Kyung Kim,Soo Young Park

BACKGROUND & AIMS Researchers previously developed a scoring system to determine the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, based on the presence of cirrhosis, patient age, male sex, and diabetes (called the CAMD scoring system). We validated the CAMD scoring system and compared its performance with that of other risk assessment models in an independent cohort. METHODS We followed up 3277 patients with chronic HBV infection (mean age, 48.7 y; 62.6% male; 32.4% with cirrhosis) who were treated with entecavir (n = 1725) or tenofovir (n = 1552) as the first-line antiviral agent in 4 academic teaching hospitals in the Republic of Korea. The primary outcome was development of HCC. We evaluated the ability of the CAMD, PAGE-B, and mPAGE-B scoring systems to identify patients who would develop HCC using integrated area under the curve (iAUC) analysis. RESULTS Over a median follow-up period of 58.2 months, 8.9% of the patients developed HCC. Patients who developed HCC were older, more likely to be male, and had higher proportions of cirrhosis and diabetes than patients who did not develop HCC (all P < .05). CAMD scores identified patients who developed HCC with an iAUC of 0.790, mPAGE-B scores with an iAUC of 0.769, and PAGE-B scores with an iAUC of 0.760. The 5-year cumulative risks of HCC were 1.3% in patients with low CAMD scores (<8), 8.0% in patients with intermediate CAMD scores (8-13), and 24.3% in patients with high CAMD scores (>13) (P < .001 for comparison of low- vs intermediate-score groups and between intermediate- vs high-score groups). The predicted and observed probabilities of HCC had excellent agreement. CONCLUSIONS We validated the CAMD scoring system in determining the risk of HCC in patients with chronic HBV treatment receiving entecavir or tenofovir treatment. Validation was performed in a cohort of patients in the Republic of Korea, where most patients have genotype C2 HBV infection.
更新日期:2020-02-20

 

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