Abstract Today the global energy industry is undergoing major changes shifting towards the green growth and circular economy solutions. The paper offers the outcomes of the foresight study of the Russian renewable energy sector and focuses on three areas: converting solar energy into electricity; converting wind energy into electricity; and converting biomass into thermal energy and electricity. The goal of the study was to foresee and agree on the visionary future for the nascent renewable energy sector in the country, as well as to provide the scientifically justified grounds for government and corporate decision-makers. The research is based on a mixture of methods: bibliometric analysis and text mining, literature review, expert surveys and interviews, workshops, STEEPV analysis of trends, scenario analysis, and applied policy analysis. As a result of the study, major trends and uncertainties that may affect the Russian and global renewable energy sector in the next 15–20 years were identified. Other results include the scenarios for Russia’s renewable energy sector that are proposed together with recommendations for the Russian companies and public authorities. The study’s policy and market implications go beyond Russia: the outcomes may be useful for similar studies, early stage renewable energy policy planning and investment decision.

中文翻译：

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俄罗斯可再生能源行业的未来：趋势、情景和政策

摘要 今天，全球能源行业正在发生重大变革，转向绿色增长和循环经济解决方案。本文提供了俄罗斯可再生能源部门前瞻性研究的成果，重点关注三个领域：将太阳能转化为电能；将风能转化为电能；并将生物质转化为热能和电能。该研究的目标是预见并同意该国新兴可再生能源部门的远见卓识，并为政府和企业决策者提供科学合理的依据。该研究基于多种方法：文献计量分析和文本挖掘、文献综述、专家调查和访谈、研讨会、STEEPV 趋势分析、情景分析和应用政策分析。研究结果确定了未来 15-20 年可能影响俄罗斯和全球可再生能源部门的主要趋势和不确定性。其他结果包括针对俄罗斯可再生能源部门提出的方案以及对俄罗斯公司和公共当局的建议。该研究的政策和市场影响超越了俄罗斯：结果可能对类似研究、早期可再生能源政策规划和投资决策有用。