Abstract Mexico’s 3.3 million tons current wheat production is projected to decline due to climate change. To counteract these negative impacts, we explored a range of plausible adaptation measures including change in crop management (early sowing and nitrogen fertilizer applications), crop genetic traits (early vigor, late flowering and heat tolerance) and wheat growing area expansion. Adaptation measures were simulated individually and in various combinations with a multi-crop model and multi-Global Climate Model ensemble across representative wheat growing regions and aggregated to national wheat production. Under both baseline (current) and future climate scenarios, most of the suggested individual and combined genetic traits resulted in a positive impact on irrigated wheat but were less beneficial in rainfed systems, with the largest responses observed with late flowering and increased N fertilizer. Increased N fertilizer applications on its own, but particularly combined with crop genetic traits showed the highest yield increase in the baseline, with further positive impacts in the future scenarios. Yield benefits from new crop genetic traits combined with increased N fertilizer applications could add about 672,000 t year−1 to national wheat production, after losing 200,000 t year−1 due to climate change by 2050s. Most effectively, expanding wheat to include all areas where wheat was previously grown during the last two decades could add 1.5 million t year−1 now and 1.2 million t year−1 in the future. Breeding for new crop genetic traits will reduce some of the negative impacts from future climate change, but improved cultivars need to be implemented with suitable crop management, especially N fertilizer management.

中文翻译：

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使灌溉和雨育小麦适应半干旱环境中的气候变化：管理、育种选择和土地利用变化

摘要 由于气候变化，墨西哥目前 330 万吨的小麦产量预计将下降。为了抵消这些负面影响，我们探索了一系列合理的适应措施，包括改变作物管理（早播和施氮肥）、作物遗传性状（早活力、晚花和耐热性）和小麦种植面积扩大。适应措施是单独模拟的，并与代表小麦种植区的多作物模型和多全球气候模型集合以各种组合进行模拟，并汇总到全国小麦产量中。在基线（当前）和未来气候情景下，大多数建议的个体和组合遗传特征对灌溉小麦产生了积极影响，但对雨养系统的益处较小，在晚花和增加氮肥时观察到最大的反应。增加施氮肥本身，特别是结合作物遗传性状，显示基线的最高产量增长，对未来情景产生进一步的积极影响。到 2050 年代由于气候变化而损失 200,000 吨-1 之后，新作物遗传性状的产量收益加上氮肥施用量的增加可使全国小麦产量增加约 672,000 吨-1 年。最有效的是，将小麦扩大到过去 20 年以前种植小麦的所有地区，现在可以增加 150 万吨-1，未来可以增加 120 万吨-1。培育新作物遗传性状将减少未来气候变化的一些负面影响，