Renewable energy has gained popularity as an alternative to fossil fuels, which regularly emit large amounts of Greenhouse Gases and consume/withdraw large amounts of water, but renewable energy market penetration is still limited while fossil fuels are still the U.S.‘s dominant power source. This is due to resistance in the market, or in this case, the failure of renewable energy policies to achieve long-term environmental sustainability due to neglected external factors (economic, societal, etc.). No available literature analyzes potential sources and/or effects of this policy resistance, so this research investigates the underlying mechanisms in the renewable energy generation market by utilizing a system dynamics model. A two-alternative Generalized Bass Model was developed to simulate the renewable energy market (specifically with respect to solar PV and wind energy), including the environmental, societal, and economic concerns associated with each of the alternatives evaluated in this study, so as to identify and address possible causes of policy resistance and its subsequent effects on environmental impacts (esp. GHG emissions and water withdrawal rates). Based on this model, three separate policy areas (solar PV investments, wind power investments, and the elimination of fossil fuel subsidies) and various combinations thereof were proposed and tested within the context of the model. Based on the results of this study, it is highly recommended to invest as generously as possible into multiple renewable energy industries, reduce fossil fuel subsidies (in turn freeing up funding for renewable energy investments), and seek further advancement in renewable energy technologies (e.g. enhancing the useable lifetimes of wind turbines). A balanced policy have potential to increase the share of renewable's up to roughly 40% in the U.S. by 2050, as well as 17% and 32% GHG and water withdrawal reduction potential by 2050.

可再生能源已成为化石燃料的替代品，该化石燃料通常会排放大量的温室气体并消耗/抽取大量的水，但是可再生能源的市场渗透率仍然有限，而化石燃料仍是美国的主要能源。这是由于市场的阻力，或者在这种情况下，是由于可忽略的外部因素（经济，社会等）导致可再生能源政策未能实现长期的环境可持续性。没有可用的文献分析这种政策阻力的潜在来源和/或影响，因此本研究通过利用系统动力学模型研究了可再生能源发电市场的潜在机制。开发了两种替代的广义巴斯模型来模拟可再生能源市场（特别是在太阳能光伏和风能方面），包括与本研究评估的每种替代方案相关的环境，社会和经济问题，从而确定并解决政策阻力的可能原因及其对环境影响的后续影响（尤其是温室气体排放量和取水率）。在此模型的基础上，提出并测试了三个单独的政策领域（太阳能光伏投资，风能投资和取消化石燃料补贴）及其各种组合。根据这项研究的结果，强烈建议您尽可能多地投资于多个可再生能源行业，减少化石燃料补贴（从而释放用于可再生能源投资的资金），并寻求可再生能源技术的进一步发展（例如，延长风力涡轮机的使用寿命）。平衡的政策有可能在2050年之前将可再生能源在美国的份额提高至大约40％，并在2050年之前将温室气体和取水量减少的潜力分别提高到17％和32％。