Objective

We estimated cumulative probabilities of onset and recurrences of child maltreatment reports from birth to age 11 years. Estimates were provided overall and within subcategories of race/ethnicity, sex, and subtype.

Method

We developed synthetic life tables from national Child Protective Services records (2003−2016) and Census data. Although 28 states and the District of Columbia were used for estimates due to data quality, sensitivity analyses suggest that our estimates may be very similar to national estimates, with very minor underestimation.

Results

The probability of having at least “X-number” of maltreatment reports by age 12 years was 32.41% for 1 report, 13.71% for 2 reports, 7.57% for 3 reports, 4.50% for reports, 2.80% for 5 reports, and 1.79% for 6 reports. Children with more prior reports were more likely to have future reports. The risk increased from 42.31% when having 1 prior report to 64.01% when having 5 prior reports. Asian/Pacific Islanders showed exceptionally lower onset and recurring rates than others. Individuals of nonwhite ethnicity (African American/black, Native American, and Hispanic) had higher onset rates than white individuals. Once initially reported, however, white persons had generally slightly higher rates of recurrence than nonwhite persons. Neglect was the most frequent subtype in both onset and recurring reports. No practical difference existed in overall onset and recurring rates by sex.

Conclusion

Many United States children experience reported maltreatment, and many experience repeated or chronic maltreatment. The increased risk of recurring with more prior reports suggests preventive efforts for serially reported children. The large racial disparity at the onset stage disappears at the recurring stages, suggesting interventions prior to the onset.

中文翻译：

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儿童虐待报告的发病率和复发率累计。

客观的

我们估计了从出生到11岁儿童虐待的发病率和复发率的累积概率。总体和种族/族裔，性别和亚型的子类别内均提供了估算值。

方法

我们根据国家儿童保护服务记录（2003-2016）和人口普查数据开发了综合寿命表。尽管由于数据质量，使用了28个州和哥伦比亚特区进行估算，但敏感性分析表明，我们的估算值可能与国家估算值非常相似，但被低估的程度很小。

结果

到12岁为止，至少有X例虐待报告的可能性为32.41％，其中1报告，13.71％，2报告，7.57％，3报告，4.5​​0％，2.80％，5报告和1.79 6个报告的％。有更多先前报告的儿童更有可能拥有未来报告。风险从有1份先前报告时的42.31％增加到有5份先前报告时的64.01％。亚洲/太平洋岛民的发病率和复发率均比其他人低。非白人种族（非裔美国人/黑人，美洲原住民和西班牙裔）的发病率比白人高。但是，一旦初步报道，白人的复发率通常比非白人略高。在发病和复发性报告中，忽视都是最常见的亚型。

结论

许多美国儿童经历过报告的虐待，许多经历了反复或长期虐待。以前有更多报道再次发生的风险增加，表明对连续报道的儿童进行了预防性努力。发病阶段的巨大种族差异在复发阶段消失，这表明在发病之前进行了干预。