Effective conservation requires monitoring and pro‐active risk assessments. We studied the effects of at‐sea mortality events (ASMEs) in marine mammals over two decades (1990–2012) and built a risk‐based indicator for the European Union's Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Strandings of harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena), short‐beaked common dolphins (Delphinus delphis), and striped dolphins (Stenella coeruleoalba) along French coastlines were analyzed using Extreme Value Theory (EVT). EVT operationalizes what is an extreme ASME, and allows the probabilistic forecasting of the expected maximum number of dead animals assuming constant pressures. For the period 2013–2018, we forecast the strandings of 80 harbor porpoises, 860 common dolphins, and 57 striped dolphins in extreme ASMEs. Comparison of these forecasts with observed strandings informs whether pressures are increasing, decreasing, or stable. Applying probabilistic methods to stranding data facilitates the building of risk‐based indicators, required under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, to monitor the effect of pressures on marine mammals.

中文翻译：

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基于风险的小鲸类动物极端死亡事件的预测：使用搁浅数据为保护实践提供信息

有效的保护需要监控和主动风险评估。我们研究了过去二十年（1990-2012年）海上死亡事件（ASME）对海洋哺乳动物的影响，并为欧盟的《海洋战略框架指令》建立了基于风险的指标。港湾海豚（Phocoena phocoena），短喙普通海豚（Delphinus delphis）和条纹海豚（Stenella coeruleoalba）的搁浅）使用极值理论（EVT）对法国海岸线沿线进行了分析。EVT实现了极端的ASME的运行，并允许在恒定压力下对预期最大死动物数量进行概率预测。在2013-2018年期间，我们预测在极端的ASME中将有80只海豚，860只普通海豚和57只条纹海豚搁浅。将这些预测与观察到的搁浅进行比较，可以得知压力是在增加，减小还是稳定。将概率方法应用于数据搁浅，有助于建立基于风险的指标，这是《海洋战略框架指令》所要求的，以监测压力对海洋哺乳动物的影响。