The Zika virus (ZIKV) was first found in Zika forest, Uganda in 1947. The disease appeared in the Americas, Northeast Brazil in May 2015. ZIKV propagated rapidly across the Americas and the World Health Organization (WHO) in February 2016 declared this as a public health emergency of international concern. The temperature conditions related to extreme El Niño of 2015–16 were exceptionally favorable for ZIKV spreading in South America. For the recent spreading of ZIKV, in Americas, Northeast Brazil was the starting point and it was associated with the extreme El Niño 2015–16. Paz and Semenza found that there is a striking overlap when the regions with extreme climatic conditions in 1 month are juxtaposed with the geographic distribution of ZIKV in subsequent months. They found that the unique climatic conditions generated by extreme El Niño of 2015–16 are congenial for the dispersal of ZIKV in the Americas. This is not a just coincidence and many authors noted that ZIKV vector Aedes aegypti is strongly dependent on surface climate conditions that occur during extreme El Niño events. Recently a study found that extreme El Niño events will double in future in response to greenhouse warming. Also it was discovered that the increase of extreme El Niño frequency will continue long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization. We analyze future extreme El Niño events along with associated surface temperatures and calculated the ZIKV quantitatively in future extreme El Niño events and found that large parts of South America are highly favorable for the spread of the disease.

寨卡病毒（ZIKV）最早于1947年在乌干达的寨卡森林中发现。该病于2015年5月在巴西东北部的美洲出现。ZIKV在美洲和世界卫生组织（WHO）迅速传播，于2016年2月宣布为国际关注的突发公共卫生事件。与2015–16年极端厄尔尼诺现象有关的温度条件特别有利于ZIKV在南美的传播。对于ZIKV最近在美洲的传播而言，巴西东北部是起点，并且与极端的2015-16厄尔尼诺现象有关。Paz和Semenza发现，当1个月内极端气候条件的地区与ZIKV在随后几个月内的地理分布并列时，就会出现惊人的重叠。他们发现，2015-16年度极端厄尔尼诺现象产生的独特气候条件有利于ZIKV在美洲的扩散。这不是一个偶然的巧合，许多作者指出ZIKV向量埃及伊蚊在很大程度上取决于发生在极端厄尔尼诺事件期间的地表气候条件。最近的一项研究发现，厄尔尼诺现象的极端事件在未来会因温室效应变暖而翻倍。另外还发现，厄尔尼诺现象极端频率的增加将在1.5°C变暖稳定后持续很长时间。我们分析了未来的极端厄尔尼诺事件以及相关的地表温度，并在未来的极端厄尔尼诺事件中定量计算了ZIKV，发现南美大部分地区对该疾病的传播非常有利。