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The changing validity of tropical cyclone warnings under global warming
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science ( IF 8.5 ) Pub Date : 2018-11-21 , DOI: 10.1038/s41612-018-0047-3
Nam-Young Kang , James B. Elsner

Hurricanes and typhoons are a regular threat to large populations across the globe. Facing the potential of a storm disaster the warning process and associated administrative activities across the western North Pacific are confounded by various tropical cyclone classifications. Here, we show that current storm warning categories have suffered from the warming environment over the past decades. Warning now at an average of one out of four storms, the category of ‘‘Super typhoon’’ from U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center is seriously influenced by the warming environment. The categories of ‘‘Very strong typhoon’’ from Japan Meteorological Agency, ‘‘Hurricane category 4’’ from U.S. National Hurricane Center and the higher now occur as often as one per nearly every three storms. The cumulative proportions of storms falling into all warning categories are enlarging, which is interpreted as an increasing threat but the frequency of warnings is potentially making the warnings less effective.



中文翻译:

全球变暖下热带气旋警告有效性的变化

飓风和台风是对全球大量人口的定期威胁。面对暴风雨的潜在危险,整个北太平洋西部的警告过程和相关的行政活动被各种热带气旋分类所混淆。在这里,我们表明当前的暴风警告类别在过去的几十年中一直受到环境变暖的影响。目前,美国平均四分之一的暴风雨警告,美国联合台风预警中心的“超级台风”类别受到变暖环境的严重影响。日本气象厅的“非常强台风”类别,美国国家飓风中心的“飓风类别4”和更高级别的类别几乎每三场风暴发生一次。

更新日期:2019-11-18
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