Abstract Prescribed (or “planned”) burning is used by land managers to reduce fuel-loads in order to mitigate the spread of wildfire, thereby protecting life and property, and to promote environmental heterogeneity to enhance biodiversity. Globally, many fire management agencies focus on increasing extent and frequency of prescribed burning. There is a need to assess how high levels of prescribed burning may affect the long-term, landscape-level persistence of ecological communities. We forward projected management scenarios over 21 years to explore how the operationally realistic implementation of four different prescribed burn targets, covering 5, 3, 1.5 and 0% of a large reserve per annum (p.a.) might affect provision and removal of fire-mediated habitat of 11 rare and threatened bird species. Sustained implementation of high targets (5 and 3% p.a.) homogenised the landscape toward young vegetation, substantially reducing highly suitable habitat for species requiring intermediate (20–60 years post-fire) and older (60+ years) age classes. In contrast, no prescribed burning generated insufficient habitat for species with early (

中文翻译：

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未来火灾情景：预测火灾管理策略对受威胁物种优质栖息地轨迹的影响

摘要 土地管理者使用规定（或“计划”）燃烧来减少燃料负荷，以减轻野火的蔓延，从而保护生命和财产，并促进环境异质性以增强生物多样性。在全球范围内，许多火灾管理机构专注于增加规定燃烧的范围和频率。需要评估高水平的规定燃烧对生态群落的长期景观持久性有何影响。我们提出了超过 21 年的预测管理方案，以探索四个不同的规定燃烧目标的实际操作实施，覆盖每年 5%、3%、1.5% 和 0% 的大型保护区 (pa) 可能会如何影响火灾介导的栖息地的提供和移除11 种稀有和受威胁的鸟类。持续实施高目标（每年 5% 和 3%）使景观向年轻植被均质化，大大减少了需要中等（火灾后 20-60 年）和更老（60 岁以上）年龄等级的物种的高度适宜栖息地。相比之下，没有规定的燃烧为早期（