This study aimed to determine the extent to which cognitive measures can predict progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer’s type dementia (AD), assess the predictive accuracy of different cognitive domain categories, and determine whether accuracy varies as a function of age and length of follow-up. We systematically reviewed and meta-analyzed data from longitudinal studies reporting sensitivity and specificity values for neuropsychological tests to identify individuals with MCI who will develop AD. We searched articles in Medline, Cochrane, EMBASE, PsycINFO, and the Web of Science. Methodological quality was assessed using the STARDem and QUADAS standards. Twenty-eight studies met the eligibility criteria (2365 participants) and reported predictive values from 61 neuropsychological tests with a 31-month mean follow-up. Values were pooled to provide combined accuracy for 14 cognitive domains. Many domains showed very good predictive accuracy with high sensitivity and specificity values (≥ 0.7). Verbal memory measures and many language tests yielded very high predictive accuracy. Other domains (e.g., executive functions, visual memory) showed better specificity than sensitivity. Predictive accuracy was highest when combining memory measures with a small set of other domains or when relying on broad cognitive batteries. Cognitive tests are excellent at predicting MCI individuals who will progress to dementia and should be a critical component of any toolkit intended to identify AD at the pre-dementia stage. Some tasks are remarkable as early indicators, whereas others might be used to suggest imminent progression.

中文翻译：

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预测从轻度认知障碍发展为老年痴呆症的痴呆症的神经心理学措施：系统评价和荟萃分析

这项研究旨在确定认知措施可以预测从轻度认知障碍（MCI）到阿尔茨海默氏型痴呆（AD）的进展的程度，评估不同认知领域类别的预测准确性，并确定准确性是否随年龄和年龄的变化而变化。随访时间。我们从纵向研究中系统地回顾和荟萃分析了数据，这些数据报告了神经心理学测试的敏感性和特异性值，以识别将发展为AD的MCI患者。我们搜索了Medline，Cochrane，EMBASE，PsycINFO和Web of Science中的文章。使用STARDem和QUADAS标准评估方法学质量。28项研究符合入选标准（2365名参与者），并报告了61项神经心理学测试的预测值，并进行了31个月的平均随访。合并值以提供14个认知域的组合准确性。许多域显示出非常好的预测准确性，具有很高的灵敏度和特异性值（≥0.7）。口头记忆措施和许多语言测试产生了很高的预测准确性。其他领域（例如执行功能，视觉记忆）表现出比敏感性更好的特异性。当将记忆量度与少量其他领域结合使用或依赖广泛的认知电池时，预测准确性最高。认知测试在预测将发展为痴呆的MCI个体方面非常出色，并且应该是任何旨在在痴呆前阶段识别AD的工具包中的关键组成部分。有些任务作为早期指标是显着的，而其他任务可能被用来暗示即将到来的进展。