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A simulation-optimization methodology to model urban catchments under non-stationary extreme rainfall events
Environmental Modelling & Software ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2017-06-07 , DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.05.008
Daniel Jato-Espino , Nora Sillanpää , Susanne M. Charlesworth , Jorge Rodriguez-Hernandez

Urban drainage is being affected by Climate Change, whose effects are likely to alter the intensity of rainfall events and result in variations in peak discharges and runoff volumes which stationary-based designs might not be capable of dealing with. Therefore, there is a need to have an accurate and reliable means to model the response of urban catchments under extreme precipitation events produced by Climate Change. This research aimed at optimizing the stormwater modelling of urban catchments using Design of Experiments (DOE), in order to identify the parameters that most influenced their discharge and simulate their response to severe storms events projected for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using a statistics-based Climate Change methodology. The application of this approach to an urban catchment located in Espoo (southern Finland) demonstrated its capability to optimize the calibration of stormwater simulations and provide robust models for the prediction of extreme precipitation under Climate Change.



中文翻译:

在非平稳极端降雨事件下模拟城市集水区的模拟优化方法

城市排水正受到气候变化的影响,气候变化的影响可能会改变降雨事件的强度,并导致峰值流量和径流量的变化,而基于静态的设计可能无法应对。因此,需要一种准确可靠的方法来模拟城市集水区在气候变化产生的极端降水事件下的响应。这项研究旨在使用实验设计(DOE)来优化城市集水区的雨水模型,以便确定对排放有最大影响的参数,并使用统计数据模拟对代表集中路径(RCP)预测的严重暴雨事件的响应-基于气候变化的方法论。

更新日期:2017-06-07
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