The meat supply chain (MSC) – a key constituent of the ‘Food & Agriculture’ CISA critical infrastructure sector, was among the most impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The witnessed successive demand and supply shocks uncovered the fragility of the MSC and revealed that more attention should be given by researchers and practitioners to ensure effective planning of such a critical infrastructure sector during periods of turbulence. To that end, in this paper we propose a two-stage approach for the planning of an MSC. In the first stage, we identify the most suitable model for predicting the demand and the supply. In the second stage, a multi-period multi-product mixed integer programming (MIP) model accounting for key MSC features is devised to deal with the planning of the MSC. Furthermore, in order to validate our theoretical proposition, a case study pertaining to a real-life MSC was used during the second and first wave of COVID-19 under different conditions. In particular, the results show that accurate demand and supply forecasting, and the recourse to rolling horizon planning approach, allow for satisfying the demand and maintaining the MSC profit in periods of turbulence, and so can be considered as levers for supply chain resilience.

中文翻译：

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大流行期间关键基础设施部门的预测和规划：来自食品供应链的经验证据

肉类供应链 (MSC) 是“食品和农业”CISA 关键基础设施部门的关键组成部分，是受 COVID-19 大流行影响最严重的部门之一。目睹的连续供需冲击暴露了 MSC 的脆弱性，并表明研究人员和从业者应给予更多关注，以确保在动荡时期对如此重要的基础设施部门进行有效规划。为此，在本文中，我们提出了一种两阶段的 MSC 规划方法。在第一阶段，我们确定最适合预测需求和供应的模型。在第二阶段，设计了考虑MSC关键特征的多周期多产品混合整数规划（MIP）模型来处理MSC的规划。此外，为了验证我们的理论主张，在不同条件下的第二波和第一波 COVID-19 期间使用了与现实生活中 MSC 相关的案例研究。特别是，结果表明，准确的需求和供应预测以及滚动规划方法可以在动荡时期满足需求并维持 MSC 利润，因此可以被视为供应链弹性的杠杆。