Personality traits are assumed to change slowly and incrementally. Recent intervention studies apparently challenge this assumption, showing that personality traits can also change quickly and substantially. However, how frequently do such quick changes manifest in the general population? This study sought to determine (1) a base rate of year-to-year changes in the general population and (2) the extent to which these shifts are related to longer-term change patterns. We examined year-to-year change in Big Five traits with nationally representative data from 7005 German participants, annually tracked for up to six years. Year-to-year patterns exhibited stability and change (e.g., ≥ 1 SD year-to-year change in ≈ 20%). Across participants, year-to-year trait score increases and decreases occurred in equal proportions, suggesting that in a given sample, year-to-year changes in different directions average out. Within participants, however, in all domains but agreeableness, year-to-year changes reliably propagated to longer-term trajectories. While much of the year-to-year change faded away in subsequent years, lasting shifts in individuals’ trait levels remained, particularly upon pronounced year-to-year decreases. Overall, (pronounced) year-to-year changes were relatively common, largely reversible, and yet predictive of individuals’ longer-term trajectories. We discuss how the results bridge set-point assumptions with assumptions of incremental trait change.

中文翻译：

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人格特质逐年变化的基本率和长期相关性

人格特质被认为是缓慢且渐进地改变的。最近的干预研究显然挑战了这一假设，表明人格特质也可以快速而显着地改变。然而，这种快速变化在普通人群中出现的频率有多高？本研究旨在确定（1）总人口逐年变化的基本比率，以及（2）这些变化与长期变化模式的相关程度。我们利用 7005 名德国参与者的全国代表性数据检查了“五大特征”的逐年变化，每年进行长达六年的追踪。逐年模式表现出稳定性和变化（例如，≥ 1 SD 每年变化约 20%）。在参与者中，逐年特征得分的增加和减少以相同比例发生，这表明在给定样本中，不同方向的逐年变化是平均的。然而，在参与者内部，除了宜人性之外的所有领域，逐年变化可靠地传播到长期轨迹。虽然大部分逐年变化在随后的几年中逐渐消失，但个人特征水平的持久变化仍然存在，特别是在逐年明显下降的情况下。总体而言，（明显的）逐年变化相对常见，很大程度上是可逆的，但可以预测个人的长期轨迹。我们讨论结果如何将设定点假设与增量性状变化的假设联系起来。