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Change in the distribution of heavy 1 h precipitation due to temperature changes in measured values, model reanalyses and model simulations of future climate
Atmospheric Research ( IF 5.5 ) Pub Date : 2024-04-07 , DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107395
Zbyněk Sokol , Daniela Řezáčová , Jana Popová

This article presents main results on how the 1 h precipitation distribution changes, focused on high percentiles, with increasing air temperature based on the data from the Czech territory. The air temperature, the dew point temperature (both measured at 2 m above ground) and the temperature of lifting condensation level are used as temperature characteristics. The change in the distribution of 1 h precipitation measurements is compared with the results of reanalyses based on simulations of numerical weather prediction model ALADIN-CZ and with the results of future climate simulations by climate model ALADIN-CLIMAT-CZ. In general, the increase in precipitation appears clearly in the very upper part of precipitation distribution for high percentiles. Values of the upper percentiles of precipitation increase up to a certain threshold temperature and then decrease, which is also found in other studies. This also applies to the simulations of future climate. The main difference in measured and model results appears at the highest temperature values, which may be implied by the very different number of the model and the measured data.

中文翻译:

测量值温度变化引起的1小时强降水分布变化、模型重新分析和未来气候模型模拟

本文基于捷克境内的数据,介绍了随着气温升高,1 小时降水分布如何变化的主要结果,重点关注高百分位数。温度特性采用空气温度、露点温度(均在距地面 2 m 处测量)和提升凝露水平温度。将1小时降水测量分布的变化与数值天气预报模型ALADIN-CZ模拟的再分析结果以及气候模型ALADIN-CLIMAT-CZ未来气候模拟的结果进行比较。一般来说,降水量的增加明显出现在高百分位降水量分布的最上部。其他研究也发现,降水量上百分位数的值会增加到某个阈值温度,然后下降。这也适用于未来气候的模拟。测量结果和模型结果的主要差异出现在最高温度值处,这可能是由模型和测量数据的数量差异很大所暗示的。
更新日期:2024-04-07
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