Chance pervades life. In turn, life histories are described by probabilities (e.g. survival and breeding) and averages across individuals (e.g. mean growth rate and age at maturity). In this study, we explored patterns of luck in lifetime outcomes by analysing structured population models for a wide array of plant and animal species. We calculated four response variables: variance and skewness in both lifespan and lifetime reproductive output (LRO), and partitioned them into contributions from different forms of luck. We examined relationships among response variables and a variety of life history traits. We found that variance in lifespan and variance in LRO were positively correlated across taxa, but that variance and skewness were negatively correlated for both lifespan and LRO. The most important life history trait was longevity, which shaped variance and skew in LRO through its effects on variance in lifespan. We found that luck in survival, growth, and fecundity all contributed to variance in LRO, but skew in LRO was overwhelmingly due to survival luck. Rapidly growing populations have larger variances in LRO and lifespan than shrinking populations. Our results indicate that luck‐induced genetic drift may be most severe in recovering populations of species with long mature lifespan and high iteroparity.

中文翻译：

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运气的自然史：结构化人口模型的综合研究

机会无处不在。反过来，生活史是通过概率（例如生存和繁殖）和个体的平均值（例如平均增长率和成熟年龄）来描述的。在这项研究中，我们通过分析多种植物和动物物种的结构化种群模型，探索了一生结果中的运气模式。我们计算了四个响应变量：寿命和终生生殖输出（LRO）的方差和偏度，并将它们划分为不同形式的运气的贡献。我们研究了反应变量和各种生活史特征之间的关系。我们发现，不同类群的寿命方差和 LRO 方差呈正相关，但寿命和 LRO 的方差和偏度呈负相关。最重要的生活史特征是长寿，它通过影响寿命方差来塑造 LRO 的方差和偏差。我们发现，生存、生长和繁殖力方面的运气都会导致 LRO 的方差，但 LRO 的偏差绝大多数是由于生存运气造成的。快速增长的人口比萎缩的人口在 LRO 和寿命方面的差异更大。我们的结果表明，运气引起的遗传漂变在成熟寿命长且迭代性高的物种种群恢复中可能最为严重。