In the 21 century, the global environment faces significant threats due to climate change, ranging from floods and droughts to heat waves and other extreme weather events. In recent decades, Pakistan has experienced severe flooding and prolonged droughts, compounding challenges related to livelihoods, public health, and population displacement. The availability of precise and robust climate change information is paramount in addressing and mitigating the adverse impacts on a region's environment and its communities. The present study intends to assess the effects of climate change on the development of homogenous climate regions (HCRs) and then developed ensemble climate projections under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) using CMIP6 data. In the first step, HCRs were developed by integrating the cluster analysis approach and L-moment technique, identifying five distinct climatic regions. HCRs were developed using both observed data and ensemble baseline data which allowed us to thoroughly evaluate the ensemble data's performance. Subsequently, we extended our analysis to the future period (2015–2044) using ensemble climate data according to SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5. Our findings indicate that, under both SSPs, certain stations exhibit discordant climatic trends in the future due to climate change. Ensemble climate projections were developed over each region for both SSPs for the duration of 2015–2044. A significant increase of 2–3.20 °C has been noted in the summer season in zone 3 and zone 5 (a region that has one of the world's largest glaciers) in maximum as well as minimum temperatures. Temperature has upward trend in the other region as well while precipitation has a mixed trend in all regions. The insights gleaned from this study hold significance and offer valuable guidance for decision-makers involved in water management, agricultural planning, and disaster management.

中文翻译：

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使用巴基斯坦 CMIP6 数据评估气候变化对均匀气候区构建和整体气候预测的影响

21世纪，全球环境面临气候变化带来的重大威胁，包括洪水、干旱、热浪和其他极端天气事件。近几十年来，巴基斯坦经历了严重的洪水和长期干旱，加剧了生计、公共卫生和人口流离失所方面的挑战。提供准确和可靠的气候变化信息对于解决和减轻对区域环境及其社区的不利影响至关重要。本研究旨在评估气候变化对同质气候区域（HCR）发展的影响，然后使用 CMIP6 数据在共享社会经济路径（SSP）下开发整体气候预测。第一步，通过整合聚类分析方法和 L 矩技术来开发 HCR，确定五个不同的气候区域。 HCR 是使用观测数据和集合基线数据开发的，这使我们能够彻底评估集合数据的性能。随后，我们根据 SSP2-4.5 和 SSP5-8.5 使用集合气候数据将分析扩展到未来时期（2015-2044 年）。我们的研究结果表明，在这两个 SSP 下，由于气候变化，某些站点在未来表现出不一致的气候趋势。针对 2015 年至 2044 年期间的两个 SSP，对每个区域进行了集合气候预测。夏季，第 3 区和第 5 区（该地区拥有世界上最大的冰川之一）的最高和最低气温显着上升了 2–3.20 °C。其他地区的气温也呈上升趋势，而所有地区的降水量呈混合趋势。这项研究获得的见解具有重要意义，并为参与水管理、农业规划和灾害管理的决策者提供了宝贵的指导。