The building sector has the fastest growth rate of carbon emissions and the greatest potential for carbon reduction. The building sector in Shandong Province ranks first in China in terms of total carbon emissions and growth rate. The study of carbon emissions in the building sector in Shandong Province is an essential reference for Chinese building sector to achieve the “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” target. This study uses historical data on carbon emissions in the building sector in Shandong Province, based on which the influencing factors and carbon reduction potential are analyzed. A dynamic and comprehensive carbon emission prediction model for buildings was developed to predict the trajectory of carbon emissions in the building sector in Shandong Province from 2020 to 2050 with the corresponding probability distribution. Results show that the main factors driving the increase in carbon emissions in the building sector in Shandong Province are the level of affluence of the residents and the level of building services. The building area demand index and building energy efficiency are the most important factors inhibiting the increase in carbon emissions in the building sector in Shandong Province during the same period. Under the baseline scenario, carbon emissions in the building sector in Shandong Province will peak at 243.573 (±46.022) million tonnes CO in 2035 (±3) years. The floor area demand index and level of affluence of the residents are the most critical factors affecting the uncertainty of future of carbon emissions in the building sector in Shandong Province.

中文翻译：

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山东省建筑业碳排放影响因素及达峰模拟

建筑行业是碳排放增长速度最快、减碳潜力最大的行业。山东省建筑业碳排放总量和增速均居全国第一。山东省建筑业碳排放研究对于我国建筑业实现“碳达峰、碳中和”目标具有重要参考意义。本研究利用山东省建筑业碳排放历史数据，分析其影响因素及碳减排潜力。建立了动态​​综合的建筑碳排放预测模型，预测了2020年至2050年山东省建筑行业碳排放的轨迹以及相应的概率分布。研究结果表明，推动山东省建筑业碳排放增加的主要因素是居民富裕程度和建筑服务水平。建筑面积需求指数和建筑节能是抑制同期山东省建筑业碳排放增加的最重要因素。在基准情景下，山东省建筑业碳排放量将于2035（±3）年达到峰值243.573（±46.022）百万吨二氧化碳。建筑面积需求指数和居民富裕水平是影响山东省建筑业碳排放未来不确定性的最关键因素。