During the design phase, the annual energy consumption of heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems is frequently simplified or fixed under certain assumptions due to uncertain parameters within the control sequence, resulting in a performance gap between the intended and actual performances. This study assessed the impact of six uncertain parameters on system energy consumption and indoor temperature control under various updating scenarios. First, sensitivity analysis was conducted using the one-at-a-time method to identify the influential impact of the single uncertain parameter. Then, mutual impact analysis was conducted to showcase how different parameters affect each other, and mixed impact analysis was applied to evaluate how intended design performance converges to actual operating outcomes. A detailed physical model of a single-zone variable air volume system was developed to enable a comprehensive evaluation across different operational conditions. The results indicate that a 10% change in some parameters can lead to a 2030% increase in energy consumption, especially during low-load winter months. Properly evaluating the influence of one parameter is difficult without taking the effects of additional parameters into account, and some combinations of parameters can significantly decrease the system performance. These results underscore the necessity of considering the updating and combination scenarios of different parameters within the control sequences during the design phase.

中文翻译：

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HVAC 系统控制序列参数变化引起的设计与运行差距：基于仿真的能源效率和温度可控性研究


在设计阶段，由于控制序列中参数的不确定性，供暖、通风和空调（HVAC）系统的年能耗经常被简化或固定在某些假设下，导致预期性能与实际性能之间存在差距。本研究评估了各种更新场景下六个不确定参数对系统能耗和室内温度控制的影响。首先，采用一次性方法进行敏感性分析，以确定单个不确定参数的影响力。然后，进行相互影响分析以展示不同参数如何相互影响，并应用混合影响分析来评估预期设计性能如何与实际运营结果融合。开发了单区变风量系统的详细物理模型，以便能够对不同运行条件进行综合评估。结果表明，某些参数的 10% 变化可能会导致能耗增加 2030%，特别是在低负荷的冬季月份。在不考虑其他参数的影响的情况下，正确评估一个参数的影响是很困难的，并且某些参数组合会显着降低系统性能。这些结果强调了在设计阶段考虑控制序列内不同参数的更新和组合场景的必要性。