The relationship between land use changes and regional carbon storage is closely linked. Identifying evolving trends concerning and influencing factors on carbon storage under future scenarios is key in order to achieve the “dual carbon” goals. Using Chongqing as a case study, this study integrated the advantages of the PLUS model, InVEST model, and a geographic detector model. It conducted simulations of land use type data under scenarios of natural development (ND) and ecological protection (EP), and identified evolving trends and influencing factors regarding carbon storage. The results were as follows: (1) the PLUS model demonstrated excellent simulation performance, with a Kappa coefficient above 0.85 and an overall accuracy above 0.90. During the study period, significant changes occurred for cultivated land, forested land, water bodies, and construction, which were closely related to carbon storage; (2) carbon storage in Chongqing showed a decreasing trend, with a decrease of 10.07 × 106 t C from 2000 to 2020. Under the ND scenario, carbon storage was projected to decrease by 10.54 × 106 t C in 2030 compared to 2020, and it was expected to stabilize from 2030 to 2050. At the county level, Youyang, Fengjie, and Wuxi had the highest carbon storage, while Nanchuan, Jiangbei, and Dadukou had the lowest; (3) the spatial distribution of carbon storage presented an “eastern hotspot western cold spot aggregation” pattern. The proportions of regions with a decreased, unchanged, and increased aggregation of carbon storage in Chongqing during 2000–2010 and 2010–2020 were 2.99%, 95.95%, 1.06%; and 4.39%, 92.40%, 3.21%, respectively. The trend indicated a decrease in the aggregation of carbon storage, and future carbon storage was expected to stabilize; (4) elevation, terrain fluctuation, NDVI, annual average temperature, annual average precipitation, and nighttime light index had influence values of 0.88, 0.81, 0.61, 0.86, 0.77, and 0.81 on carbon storage, respectively, with different combinations of influencing factors having a greater impact. In the future, ecological priority and green development concepts should be followed, and comprehensive improvement of regional development conditions should be pursued to enhance carbon storage, thereby promoting the achievement of the “dual carbon” goals. This study provided an analytical path and data support for formulating optimized carbon storage policies at the regional level.

中文翻译：

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未来情景下重庆碳储量变化趋势及影响因素分析

土地利用变化与区域碳储存之间的关系密切相关。识别未来情景下碳储存的演变趋势和影响因素是实现“双碳”目标的关键。本研究以重庆为案例，综合了PLUS模型、InVEST模型和地理探测器模型的优点。对自然发展（ND）和生态保护（EP）情景下的土地利用类型数据进行模拟，识别碳储存的演变趋势和影响因素。结果如下：（1）PLUS模型表现出优异的仿真性能，Kappa系数在0.85以上，总体精度在0.90以上。研究期间，与碳储量密切相关的耕地、林地、水体、建设等发生了显着变化； (2) 重庆市碳储量呈下降趋势，2000年至2020年减少10.07×106 t C。ND情景下，预计2030年碳储量较2020年减少10.54×106 t C，预计2030-2050年趋于稳定。县域碳储量最高的是酉阳、奉节、无锡，南川、江北、大渡口最低； (3)碳储量空间分布呈现“东热点西冷点聚集”的格局。 2000-2010年和2010-2020年重庆市碳储量总量减少、不变和增加的区域比例分别为2.99%、95.95%、1.06%；分别为 4.39%、92.40%、3.21%。趋势表明碳储量总量减少，未来碳储量有望趋于稳定； (4) 不同影响因素组合下,海拔、地形起伏、NDVI、年平均气温、年平均降水量和夜间光照指数对碳储量的影响值分别为0.88、0.81、0.61、0.86、0.77和0.81产生较大的影响。未来应遵循生态优先、绿色发展理念，全面改善区域发展条件，增强碳储量，推动“双碳”目标的实现。本研究为区域层面优化碳储存政策的制定提供了分析路径和数据支撑。