This study analyzes the differences and similarities between Tier 1 (Tokyo) and Tier 2 (Kansai) metropolitan areas due to shrinking city problems. Both metropolitan areas will see a dramatic decrease in the housing asset value (HAV). Kansai is declining at a faster pace than Tokyo: it is projected that HAVs will register a further decrease of around 38% by 2045, and the decline will be quantitatively more important in the northern suburbs of Osaka. These results raised the question of whether Kansai would be more impoverished by HAV deflation. By focusing on the income multiplier of HAV per household, we find that Tokyo has a higher income multiplier of around 4 (against 2 for Osaka), thus causing much greater HAV deflation per household in Tokyo. Greater HAV deflation per household entails more severe problems for elderly households that need to finance their retirement. Considering our findings, despite earlier and faster trends of HAV deflation in the Tier 2 metropolitan area, the Tier 1 metropolitan area could face big socioeconomic challenges in the future. We conclude that HAV deflation leads to problems of different nature depending on metropolitan rank, rather than just knowing which one is losing more through HAV deflation.

中文翻译：

---

人口减少时代，房产资产价值缩水对二线大都市有何影响？东京都和关西都市区的比较

本研究分析了一级（东京）和二级（关西）大都市地区因城市萎缩问题而存在的差异和相似之处。这两个大都市区的住房资产价值（HAV）都将急剧下降。关西的下降速度比东京更快：预计到 2045 年，HAV 将进一步下降 38% 左右，其中大阪北郊的下降在数量上更为重要。这些结果提出了关西地区是否会因 HAV 通货紧缩而变得更加贫困的问题。通过关注每户 HAV 的收入乘数，我们发现东京的收入乘数较高，约为 4（大阪为 2），从而导致东京每户 HAV 通货紧缩更大。每个家庭的 HAV 通货紧缩会给需要为退休提供资金的老年家庭带来更严重的问题。考虑到我们的研究结果，尽管二级大都市区的 HAV 通货紧缩趋势较早且较快，但一级大都市区未来可能面临巨大的社会经济挑战。我们得出的结论是，HAV 通货紧缩会导致不同性质的问题，具体取决于大都市等级，而不仅仅是知道哪个城市因 HAV 通货紧缩损失更多。