Optimal forager theory (OFT) initially emerged from ecological studies, elucidating how foraging organisms seek resources. In recent decades, this ecological theory has migrated to the realm of criminology, where it is used to identify burglary offenders and inform crime analysis. Several police services employ optimal forager theory-based analysis to guide hotspot patrol interventions aimed at reducing domestic burglary. Crime displacement resulting from hotspot interventions has been a subject of debate, with approximately a quarter of cases experiencing some form of displacement, the underlying reasons for which remain unclear. This study postulates that the presence of the optimal forager typology of offender may be one contributing factor. To test this hypothesis, we analyze the cumulative crime diffusion and displacement effects of ten optimal forager theory-inspired hotspot interventions employing the weighted displacement quotient (WDQ) technique (Bowers and Johnson, 2003) and the Cambridge harm index (CHI) (Sherman et al., 2016). The findings reveal the interventions' marked efficacy in reducing domestic burglary within response areas. However, this reduction is overshadowed by the substantial spatial and offense displacement they induce, encompassing both crime count and harm. These results provide insights into the proportion of hotspot interventions that trigger crime displacement, and policy implications for the choice and selection of crime reduction strategies. Supported by ecological studies of optimal foragers, we argue that this phenomenon stems from the exceptional motivation of foraging offenders and their inclination toward anti-detection behavior, specifically, relocating to alternative crime areas.

中文翻译：

---

针对最佳觅食者的热点警务干预是否会导致犯罪流离失所？

最佳觅食者理论（OFT）最初源于生态研究，阐明了觅食生物如何寻找资源。近几十年来，这种生态理论已经转移到犯罪学领域，用于识别入室盗窃者并为犯罪分析提供信息。一些警察部门采用基于最佳觅食者理论的分析来指导旨在减少家庭盗窃的热点巡逻干预措施。热点干预措施导致的犯罪流离失所一直是一个争论的话题，大约四分之一的案件经历了某种形式的流离失所，其根本原因仍不清楚。这项研究假设，犯罪者的最佳觅食者类型的存在可能是一个影响因素。为了检验这一假设，我们采用加权位移商（WDQ）技术（Bowers 和 Johnson，2003）和剑桥伤害指数（CHI）（Sherman 等人）分析了十种最佳觅食者理论启发的热点干预措施的累积犯罪扩散和位移效应。等，2016）。研究结果表明，干预措施在减少响应区域内的家庭盗窃方面具有显着效果。然而，这种减少被它们引起的大量空间和犯罪转移（包括犯罪数量和伤害）所掩盖。这些结果提供了关于引发犯罪转移的热点干预措施的比例的见解，以及对减少犯罪战略的选择和选择的政策影响。在最佳觅食者生态学研究的支持下，我们认为这种现象源于觅食罪犯的特殊动机及其反侦查行为的倾向，特别是搬迁到其他犯罪地区。