Climate change profoundly alters land use in alpine regions, and delving into the evolutionary characteristics of these changes is crucial for the sustainable development of regional land resources and the gradual enhancement of the ecological environment. Taking the source region of the Yangtze and Yellow River (SRYAYE) as a case study, we integrate permafrost and snowfall data into the Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS). Analyzing historical land use, we predict and simulate the land use scenarios for 2030, 2035, and 2060 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 climates, and conduct a detailed analysis of the scale, composition, and pattern of land use in this area. Scale. The results showed that ① the Kappa coefficient of the improved FLUS model was higher than 0.927, and that the overall accuracy of the simulation was increased by 2.64%; ② the area of forest land and the high-coverage grassland will increase in the future and the center of gravity will migrate to the west, and that the area of moderate and low-coverage grassland will slightly decrease but tend to become green to the west; and ③ the fragmentation degree of the SRYAYE is decreasing, and the influence of human activities on the landscape pattern is weaker than in the past.

中文翻译：

---

基于改进FLUS模型的长江、黄河源区土地利用演变特征分析与预测

气候变化深刻改变高寒地区土地利用，深入研究这些变化的演化特征对于区域土地资源的可持续发展和生态环境的逐步改善至关重要。以长江黄河源区（SRYAYE）为例，我们将永久冻土和降雪数据集成到未来土地利用模拟模型（FLUS）中。通过历史土地利用分析，预测模拟SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5气候下2030年、2035年、2060年的土地利用情景，并对规模、构成、以及该地区的土地利用格局。规模。结果表明：①改进后的FLUS模型的Kappa系数高于0.927，模拟整体精度提高了2.64%；②未来林地和高覆盖度草地面积将增加且重心西移，中、低覆盖度草地面积略有减少但有向西变绿的趋势; ③SRYAYE的破碎化程度正在降低，人类活动对景观格局的影响较过去减弱。