Significant carbon emissions, a key contributor to global climate warming, pose risks to ecosystems and human living conditions. It is crucial to monitor the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon emissions at the county level to reach the goals of carbon peak and neutrality. This study examines carbon emissions and economic and social problems data from 89 counties in Zhejiang Province. It employs analytical techniques such as LISA time path, spatio-temporal transition, and standard deviational ellipse to investigate the trends of carbon emissions from 2002 to 2022. Furthermore, it utilizes the GTWR model to evaluate the factors that influence these emissions on a county scale. The findings reveal the following: (1) The LISA time path analysis indicates a pronounced local spatial structure in the distribution of carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province from 2002 to 2022, characterized by increasing stability, notable path dependency, and some degree of spatial integration, albeit with a diminishing trend in overall integration. (2) The LISA spatio-temporal transition analysis indicates significant path dependency or lock-in effects in the county-level spatial clustering of carbon emissions. (3) Over the period 2002–2022, the centroid of carbon emissions in Zhejiang’s counties mainly oscillated between 120°55′15″ E and 120°57′01″ E and between 29°55′52″ N and 29°59′11″ N, with a general northeastward shift forming a “V” pattern. This shift resulted in a stable “northeast–southwest” spatial distribution. (4) Factors such as population size, urbanization rate, and economic development level predominantly accelerate carbon emissions, whereas industrial structure tends to curb them. It is crucial to customize carbon mitigation plans to suit the circumstances of each county. This study provides insight into the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon emissions at the county level in Zhejiang Province. It offers crucial guidance for developing targeted and practical strategies to reduce carbon emissions.

中文翻译：

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县域碳排放时空动态及其影响因素——以浙江省为例

大量碳排放是全球气候变暖的一个关键因素，对生态系统和人类生活条件构成风险。监测县域碳排放的时空格局对于实现碳达峰和中和的目标至关重要。本研究考察了浙江省 89 个县的碳排放和经济社会问题数据。采用LISA时间路径、时空转变、标准差椭圆等分析技术，研究2002年至2022年碳排放变化趋势。并利用GTWR模型评估县域尺度碳排放影响因素。 。研究结果表明：（1）LISA时间路径分析表明，2002年至2022年浙江省碳排放分布存在明显的局部空间结构，其特点是稳定性增强、路径依赖性显着，且空间整合程度较高。尽管整体一体化呈减弱趋势。(2)LISA时空转变分析表明县级碳排放空间聚集存在显着的路径依赖或锁定效应。(3) 2002—2022年，浙江县域碳排放重心主要在120°55′15″ E～120°57′01″ E和29°55′52″ N～29°59′之间振荡北纬 11 英寸，总体向东北移动，形成“V”形。这种转变导致了稳定的“东北—西南”空间分布。（4）人口规模、城镇化率、经济发展水平等因素对碳排放有加速作用，而产业结构对碳排放有抑制作用。制定适合每个县具体情况的碳减排计划至关重要。本研究深入了解浙江省县级碳排放的时空格局。它为制定有针对性和实用的减少碳排放战略提供了重要指导。