Conservation projects have a lifecycle; they are born, they grow, and they can die. However, researchers know little about how the legacy of a project that failed to deliver upon its promised goals affects former participants’ willingness to participate in future conservation programming. We utilize a natural experiment—an expiration of a Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Land Degradation (REDD+) readiness project that failed to yield payments in Pemba Zanzibar to explore whether and how exposure to REDD+ has influenced residents’ willingness to participate in a proposed future payment for ecosystem initiative (PES). We develop a simple causal model and analyse willingness to accept data from treated and non-treated (ward), showing how exposure to REDD+ affected former participants’ willingness to engage with future PES projects and how this is moderated by factors shown in previous studies to be key indicators of uptake. Contrary to our expectations, we find that exposure to REDD+ is associated with fewer protest bids and higher levels of expected future participation. We find strong evidence that use values, wealth, loss aversion, environmental attitudes, and social desirability mediate this effect. We discuss these findings concerning Pemba and end with suggestions for conservationists establishing programs with uncertain futures.

中文翻译：

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失败的价值：过期的 REDD+ 保护计划对居民未来参与意愿的影响

保护项目有一个生命周期；他们出生，成长，也可能死亡。然而，研究人员对于未能实现其承诺目标的项目的遗产如何影响前参与者参与未来保护计划的意愿知之甚少。我们利用自然实验——桑给巴尔奔巴岛减少毁林和土地退化排放 (REDD+) 准备项目到期，但未能产生付款，来探讨 REDD+ 的暴露是否以及如何影响居民参与拟议的未来付款的意愿生态系统倡议（PES）。我们开发了一个简单的因果模型，并分析了接受治疗和未治疗（病房）数据的意愿，显示了接触 REDD+ 如何影响前参与者参与未来 PES 项目的意愿，以及如何通过之前研究中显示的因素来调节这种影响成为吸收的关键指标。与我们的预期相反，我们发现接触 REDD+ 与较少的抗议投标和较高的预期未来参与水平相关。我们发现强有力的证据表明，使用价值观、财富、损失厌恶、环境态度和社会期望可以调节这种效应。我们讨论了有关彭巴岛的这些发现，并最后向自然资源保护主义者提出了制定未来不确定的计划的建议。