40% of the land global surface and deliver significant ecosystem services. These regions are the most sensitive, prone to suffer the effects of climate and distribution changes, so estimates on projected range shifts are crucial to complement traditional approaches to biodiversity conservation and sustainability. Shrubs of the Monte Desert dominate the largest temperate dryland in South America. Our goal is to assess the spatial distribution and niche overlap of three native shrubs ( (LC), (LD), and (LN)), under present climate conditions, to retrodict their potential past distribution, and anticipate their predicted range under future climate scenarios. We used ecological niche modeling that were projected to the past (LGM and Mid Holocene) and future (2050 and 2070) under two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and two model of global circulation. All species have high niche overlap (67–89%), but showed species-specific responses, highlighting the need to develop mitigation measures particularly for LD and LN in the face of climate change and land use pressures. Global South deserts are being highly degraded and information on future potential ranges of endemic species can support the development of sustainable conservation and management plans.

中文翻译：

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模拟过去、现在和未来：南美旱地三种灌木同源物种对气候变化的特定反应

占全球陆地面积 40% 并提供重要的生态系统服务。这些地区是最敏感的，容易受到气候和分布变化的影响，因此对预计范围变化的估计对于补充生物多样性保护和可持续性的传统方法至关重要。蒙特沙漠的灌木丛占据了南美洲最大的温带旱地。我们的目标是评估三种本土灌木（（LC）、（LD）和（LN））在当前气候条件下的空间分布和生态位重叠，以回顾它们过去的潜在分布，并预测它们在未来气候下的预测范围场景。我们使用生态位模型，在两种温室气体排放情景和两种全球环流模型下预测过去（末次盛世和全新世中期）和未来（2050 年和 2070 年）。所有物种都有很高的生态位重叠（67-89%），但表现出物种特异性的反应，突出表明面对气候变化和土地利用压力，需要制定缓解措施，特别是针对LD和LN。全球南部沙漠正在高度退化，有关特有物种未来潜在范围的信息可以支持可持续保护和管理计划的制定。