1 CALLS FOR IMMEDIATE ACTION ARE GETTING LOUDER, BUT THEY ARE NOT HAVING A LASTING IMPACT ON SOCIETY AND POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS AS A WHOLE

The global action on climate change is out of sync. The world is rapidly moving deeper into a dangerous climate crisis; science is providing ample warnings of an imminent planetary emergency; while policy and the global economy moves, at best, in incremental steps. The recently finalised COP28 in Dubai is no exception. Even though the agreement, signed by all countries in the world, provides a workable plan for the transition away from fossil fuels—the dominant cause of global warming—there are no convincing signs of world action at the speed and scale required to align with the scientific consensus.

The results of an analysis by the World Economic Forum (WEF) show that even if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, the cumulative financial loss due to climate change alone is likely to reach 2.4 trillion dollars by 2030. Overall, the financial burden of the global health costs, ignited with the climate crisis, exceed already 10% of the GDP of each and every country making health sector the leading driving force of the world's economy. By 2050, the WEF expects 14.5 million additional deaths and 12.5 trillion dollars in economic losses worldwide due to extreme weather events such as heatwaves, drought or floods. The WEF recommends fortifying healthcare systems and decisively limiting global warming in order to prevent such scenarios.¹

Not acting now will lead to irreversible damage and will increasingly be at the expense of health, as the 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change emphasizes.² And in October 2023, Scientists and medical experts worldwide called for immediate action in more than 200 scientific journals. The United Nations and political leaders are urged to treat the climate crisis and the biodiversity crisis as “one indivisible” major crisis—a global health emergency. It is important, according to the call, that science across disciplines speak with one voice.³

A loud voice is needed and probably many more such calls and initiatives,⁴ because still parts of society and politics are not reached, and even if reached, the overwhelming evidence of rising global risks is not sinking in. For example, it is truly frustrating and worrying, that so few decision makers understand the importance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. That 1.5°C is not a goal, or target, as often portrayed, but (scientifically speaking) a physical limit, beyond which tipping points likely are crossed, massive health impacts incurred, and where adaptation measure become increasingly costly and difficult as the WEF analysis shows.

中文翻译：

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气候危机瘫痪：在不断变化的世界中加快全球卫生复原力行动

1 立即采取行动的呼声越来越高，但并未对整个社会和政治机构产生持久影响

全球应对气候变化的行动不同步。世界正在迅速陷入危险的气候危机；科学正在对迫在眉睫的地球紧急情况发出充分的警告；而政策和全球经济充其量只是渐进式的变化。最近在迪拜举行的 COP28 也不例外。尽管世界所有国家签署的协议为摆脱化石燃料（全球变暖的主要原因）提供了可行的计划，但没有令人信服的迹象表明世界采取行动的速度和规模与科学共识。

世界经济论坛（WEF）分析结果显示，即使全球变暖限制在1.5℃，到2030年，仅气候变化造成的累计经济损失就可能达到2.4万亿美元。总体而言，财政负担气候危机引发的全球卫生成本已超过每个国家 GDP 的 10%，使卫生部门成为世界经济的主要推动力。世界经济论坛预计，到 2050 年，由于热浪、干旱或洪水等极端天气事件，全球将新增 1450 万人死亡，造成 12.5 万亿美元的经济损失。世界经济论坛建议加强医疗保健系统并果断限制全球变暖，以防止此类情况的发生。¹

正如 2023 年《柳叶刀》健康与气候变化倒计时报告所强调的那样，现在不采取行动将导致不可逆转的损害，并将越来越多地以牺牲健康为代价。² 2023 年 10 月，世界各地的科学家和医学专家在 200 多种科学期刊上呼吁立即采取行动。敦促联合国和政治领导人将气候危机和生物多样性危机视为“一个不可分割的”重大危机——全球卫生紧急情况。根据这一呼吁，跨学科的科学用同一个声音说话是很重要的。³

我们需要发出响亮的声音，并且可能需要更多这样的呼吁和倡议，⁴因为社会和政治的某些部分仍然没有达到，而且即使达到了，全球风险上升的压倒性证据也没有被人们所接受。例如，这确实令人沮丧令人担忧的是，很少有决策者了解将全球变暖限制在 1.5°C 的重要性。1.5°C 并不是一个经常描述的目标，而是（科学地讲）一个物理极限，超过这个极限，可能会跨越临界点，产生巨大的健康影响，并且随着世界经济论坛的召开，适应措施将变得越来越昂贵和困难。分析表明。