The purpose of this study was to determine whether a change in school grades could serve as a turning point for delinquency, and whether it did so by forming a reciprocal relationship with a change in moral agency. Separate samples of 3,558 (2,829 males, 729 females) and 3,559 (2,811 males, 748 females) low-to-moderate risk justice-involved youth from the same data set served as participants in this study. Cross-lagging school grades and moral agency, while controlling for prior levels of all predictor and outcome variables, two four-variable pathways were tested (grades → moral agency → grades → recidivism; moral agency → grades → moral agency → recidivism). There were significant indirect effects in both pathways across samples, although none of the four direct effects were significant. These findings support the notion that small changes in behavior (grades) and cognition (moral agency) produce a chain reaction capable of predicting desistance from crime.

中文翻译：

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根据学校成绩和道德能动性的变化预测未来的累犯

这项研究的目的是确定学校成绩的变化是否可以成为犯罪的转折点，以及它是否通过与道德能动性的变化形成互惠关系来实现这一点。来自同一数据集的 3,558 名（2,829 名男性，729 名女性）和 3,559 名（2,811 名男性，748 名女性）低至中度风险参与司法的青少年的单独样本作为本研究的参与者。交叉滞后的学校成绩和道德能动性，在控制所有预测变量和结果变量的先前水平的同时，测试了两条四变量路径（成绩→道德能动性→成绩→累犯；道德能动性→成绩→道德能动性→累犯）。尽管四个直接影响都不显着，但样本中的两条途径均存在显着的间接影响。这些发现支持这样一种观点，即行为（等级）和认知（道德能动性）的微小变化会产生连锁反应，能够预测犯罪的停止。