Most existing solutions to the current replication crisis in science address only the factors stemming from specific poor research practices. We introduce a novel mechanism that leverages the experts’ predictive abilities to analyze the root causes of replication failures. It is backed by the principle that the most accurate predictor is the most qualified expert. This mechanism can be seamlessly integrated into the existing replication prediction market framework with minimal implementation costs. It relies on an objective rather than subjective process and unstructured expert opinions to effectively identify various influences contributing to the replication crisis.

中文翻译：

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导致复制危机的替代因素：预测与评估

针对当前科学复制危机的大多数现有解决方案仅解决源于特定不良研究实践的因素。我们引入了一种新颖的机制，利用专家的预测能力来分析复制失败的根本原因。它的原则是最准确的预测者是最合格的专家。该机制可以以最小的实施成本无缝集成到现有的复制预测市场框架中。它依靠客观而非主观的过程和非结构化的专家意见来有效识别导致复制危机的各种影响。