This study examines the import allocation of wood pellets, shedding light on the direction of import substitution in South Korea. For empirical analyses, this study employs the differential import allocation model incorporating both price and policy factors. The results show that both Southeast Asian countries and the rest of the world (ROW) support an additional increase in total imports. The results also present evidence that the import demand for wood pellets from Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and ROW is inelastic in response to a change in their own prices. Notably, Malaysian and ROW pellets serve as substitutes for Vietnamese wood pellets, and vice versa. The import demand for Malaysian and ROW pellets appears to be more responsive to fluctuations in the import prices of Vietnamese wood pellets than the reverse. Moreover, the results highlight the presence of policy-induced import allocation. When the mandated share in the renewable portfolio standard increases, South Korea tends to elevate the import demand for Vietnamese and Indonesian wood pellets while decreasing it from ROW. The rolling regression analyses further support the evidence of price- and policy-induced shifts in import sources.

中文翻译：

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探索木屑颗粒的进口分配：可再生能源组合标准下的价格和政策影响的见解

本研究考察了木屑颗粒的进口分配，揭示了韩国进口替代的方向。为了进行实证分析，本研究采用了纳入价格和政策因素的差异进口分配模型。结果显示，东南亚国家和世界其他地区（ROW）都支持进口总量进一步增加。结果还表明，越南、马来西亚、印度尼西亚和世界其他地区的木屑颗粒进口需求对其自身价格变化缺乏弹性。值得注意的是，马来西亚和世界其他地区的颗粒可以作为越南木质颗粒的替代品，反之亦然。马来西亚和世界其他地区颗粒的进口需求似乎对越南木颗粒进口价格波动的反应更敏感，而不是相反。此外，结果凸显了政策诱导的进口分配的存在。当可再生能源组合标准中的强制份额增加时，韩国倾向于提高对越南和印度尼西亚木颗粒的进口需求，同时减少对世界其他地区的进口需求。滚动回归分析进一步支持了价格和政策引起的进口来源变化的证据。