Forest natural climate solutions such as improved forest management and reforestation have been identified as a cost-effective way to mitigate climate change. Several US states have GHG reduction policies, often citing forests as a key to meeting mitigation targets despite not knowing how specific practices impact carbon and other forest ecosystem services at the regional level. In response, we link a regional forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) with economic and policy data to assess how shifting forest management in Maine, USA, impacts the region's future carbon sequestration, timber supply, biodiversity, and landowner returns. Scenario analysis results show consistent tradeoffs between carbon sequestration and timber supply, with impacts diminished when managers shift to a land-sparing and balanced management approach consisting of permanent set-asides and intensive clearcut with planting regimes. We also estimate that carbon sequestration can increase by 15–25% over the reference case while still maintaining harvest levels by shifting to a broader mix of intensive and extensive practices. Further, we estimate that harvests could grow by 20% above the baseline and still positively affect forest carbon. In all cases, shifts in practices had a mixed impact on biodiversity due to the diverse habitat indicators evaluated for this study. Overall, we find that changes in forest management can lead to improved outcomes for both carbon and other forest ecosystem services of interest, provided managers are given the policy, economic, and social incentives to do so.

中文翻译：

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优化管理的权衡和协同作用，以最大限度地提高复杂景观和多样化生态系统服务的碳封存

改善森林管理和重新造林等森林自然气候解决方案已被认为是缓解气候变化的一种经济有效的方法。美国几个州制定了温室气体减排政策，经常将森林视为实现减排目标的关键，尽管不知道具体做法如何影响区域层面的碳和其他森林生态系统服务。为此，我们将区域森林景观模型 (LANDIS-II) 与经济和政策数据联系起来，以评估美国缅因州森林管理的转变如何影响该地区未来的碳封存、木材供应、生物多样性和土地所有者回报。情景分析结果显示，碳固存和木材供应之间存在一致的权衡，当管理者转向包括永久预留和密集砍伐种植制度在内的土地节约和平衡管理方法时，影响就会减弱。我们还估计，通过转向更广泛的集约和粗放实践相结合，碳固存可以比参考案例增加 15-25%，同时仍然保持收获水平。此外，我们估计收成可能比基线增长 20%，并且仍然对森林碳产生积极影响。在所有情况下，由于本研究评估的栖息地指标不同，实践的转变对生物多样性产生了复杂的影响。总体而言，我们发现，只要管理者获得政策、经济和社会激励，森林管理的变化可以改善碳和其他感兴趣的森林生态系统服务的结果。