The chemical industry, along with many other industries, has pledged to reach net-zero emissions within the next few decades for greenhouse gases, plastics, etc. This requires systematic methods to guide investment in technologies and value-chain alternatives, and develop roadmaps. The proposed framework is a multiperiod planning model to guide optimal reforms in cradle-to-cradle life-cycle networks across the pledged time horizon. It aims to meet environmental targets while minimizing the total annualized cost of natural resources and the investment cost associated with adoption of novel technologies. This considers the evolution of technology readiness levels as S-curves or continuous time Markov-chains. Integrated Assessment models account for climate change, decarbonization due to energy mix changes, and carbon taxes. Multiple climate change scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways are used to model future scenarios. In addition to providing roadmaps, the outputs can also be used to identify technologies that will be robust to future scenarios.

中文翻译：

---

通过技术和气候变化的长期规划，规划通向净零化工行业的道路

化学工业与许多其他行业一样，承诺在未来几十年内实现温室气体、塑料等的净零排放。这需要系统的方法来指导对技术和价值链替代方案的投资，并制定路线图。拟议的框架是一个多时期规划模型，用于在承诺的时间范围内指导从摇篮到摇篮的生命周期网络的优化改革。它旨在实现环境目标，同时最大限度地减少自然资源的年化总成本以及与采用新技术相关的投资成本。这将技术准备水平的演变视为 S 曲线或连续时间马尔可夫链。综合评估模型考虑了气候变化、能源结构变化导致的脱碳以及碳税。多种气候变化情景和共享的社会经济路径用于模拟未来情景。除了提供路线图之外，输出还可以用于确定对未来场景具有鲁棒性的技术。