Anthropogenic activities are altering ecosystem stability and climate worldwide, which is disturbing and shifting arbovirus vector distributions. Although the overall geographic range of some epidemiologically important species is recognized, the spatiotemporal variation for other species in the context of climate change remains poorly understood. Here we predict the current potential distribution of 9 species of Culex (Melanoconion) based on an ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach and assess spatiotemporal variation in future climate change in the Neotropics. The most important environmental predictors were the mean temperature of the warmest season (27 °C), precipitation during the driest month (50 mm), and precipitation during the warmest season (>200 mm). The best current model for each species was transferred to the future general circulation model IPSL-CM6A-LR, using 2 shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (ssp1-2.6, ssp5-8.5). Under both scenarios of climatic change, an expansion of suitable areas can be observed followed by a strong reduction for the medium–long future under the worst scenario. The multivariate environmental similarity surface analysis indicated future novel climates outside the current range. However, none of the species would occur in those areas. Even if many challenges remain in improving methods for forecasting species responses to global climate change and arbovirus transmission, ENM has strong potential to be applied to the geographic characterization of these systems. Our study can be used for the monitoring of Culex (Melanoconion) species populations and their associated arboviruses, contributing to develop region-specific public health surveillance programs.

中文翻译：

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新热带地区公共卫生关注的库蚊（Melanoconion）（双翅目：库蚊科）当前和未来的潜在分布

人类活动正在改变全球生态系统的稳定性和气候，这正在扰乱和改变虫媒病毒载体的分布。尽管一些流行病学上重要的物种的总体地理范围已被认识，但气候变化背景下其他物种的时空变化仍然知之甚少。在这里，我们基于生态位模型 (ENM) 方法预测了 9 种库蚊 (Melanoconion) 的当前潜在分布，并评估了新热带地区未来气候变化的时空变化。最重要的环境预测因子是最暖季节的平均温度（27°C）、最干燥月份的降水量（50毫米）和最暖季节的降水量（>200毫米）。每个物种的最佳当前模型被转移到未来的大气环流模型 IPSL-CM6A-LR，使用 2 个共享的社会经济路径情景（ssp1-2.6、ssp5-8.5）。在这两种气候变化情景下，都可以观察到适宜区域的扩大，而在最坏的情景下，中长期未来的适宜区域会大幅减少。多变量环境相似性表面分析表明未来的新气候超出了当前范围。然而，这些地区不会出现任何物种。尽管在改进预测物种对全球气候变化和虫媒病毒传播的反应的方法方面仍然存在许多挑战，但 ENM 具有应用于这些系统的地理特征的巨大潜力。我们的研究可用于监测库蚊（Melanoconion）物种种群及其相关虫媒病毒，有助于制定特定区域的公共卫生监测计划。