The objectives of this study were to compare dengue virus (DENV) cases, deaths, case-fatality ratio [CFR], and meteorological parameters between the first and the recent decades of this century (2000–2010 vs. 2011–2022) and to describe the trends, seasonality, and impact of change of temperature and rainfall patterns on transmission dynamics of dengue in Bangladesh. For the period 2000–2022, dengue cases and death data from Bangladesh’s Ministry of Health and Family Welfare’s website, and meteorological data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department were analyzed. A Poisson regression model was performed to identify the impact of meteorological parameters on the monthly dengue cases. A forecast of dengue cases was performed using an autoregressive integrated moving average model. Over the past 23 yr, a total of 244,246 dengue cases were reported including 849 deaths (CFR = 0.35%). The mean annual number of dengue cases increased 8 times during the second decade, with 2,216 cases during 2000–2010 vs. 18,321 cases during 2011–2022. The mean annual number of deaths doubled (21 vs. 46), but the overall CFR has decreased by one-third (0.69% vs. 0.23%). Concurrently, the annual mean temperature increased by 0.49 °C, and rainfall decreased by 314 mm with altered precipitation seasonality. Monthly mean temperature (Incidence risk ratio [IRR]: 1.26), first-lagged rainfall (IRR: 1.08), and second-lagged rainfall (IRR: 1.17) were significantly associated with monthly dengue cases. The increased local temperature and changes in rainfall seasonality might have contributed to the increased dengue cases in Bangladesh.

中文翻译：

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孟加拉国地方性登革热二十年（2000-2022）：趋势、季节性以及温度和降雨模式对传播动态的影响

本研究的目的是比较本世纪前几十年和最近几十年（2000-2010 年与 2011-2022 年）的登革热病毒（DENV）病例、死亡人数、病死率 [CFR] 和气象参数，并描述趋势、季节性以及温度和降雨模式变化对孟加拉国登革热传播动态的影响。对2000年至2022年期间孟加拉国卫生和家庭福利部网站的登革热病例和死亡数据以及孟加拉国气象部门的气象数据进行了分析。采用泊松回归模型来确定气象参数对每月登革热病例的影响。使用自回归积分移动平均模型对登革热病例进行预测。在过去 23 年里，总共报告了 244,246 例登革热病例，其中 849 例死亡（CFR = 0.35%）。在第二个十年中，每年平均登革热病例数增加了 8 倍，2000 年至 2010 年期间为 2,216 例，而 2011 年至 2022 年期间为 18,321 例。年平均死亡人数翻了一番（21 人比 46 人），但总体病死率下降了三分之一（0.69% 比 0.23%）。同时，年平均气温上升0.49℃，降雨量减少314毫米，降水季节发生变化。月平均气温（发病风险比 [IRR]：1.26）、第一滞后降雨量（IRR：1.08）和第二滞后降雨量（IRR：1.17）与每月登革热病例显着相关。当地气温升高和降雨季节变化可能导致孟加拉国登革热病例增加。