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Systemic modeling strategies in public policy: an appraisal from literature
Environmental Science & Policy ( IF 6 ) Pub Date : 2024-01-22 , DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103668
Marco Billi , Angel Allendes , Rodrigo Jiliberto , Rodrigo Ramos-Jiliberto , Bárbara Salinas , Anahí Urquiza

Contemporary society has grown increasingly dependent on the integration of knowledge for decision-making. In this context, systemic modeling is acknowledged as a straightforward tool for representing and analyzing complex problems. To address how systemic modeling is being conducted to guide and support public policy-making, this study offers a brief synthesis of the literature on systemic modeling oriented to help public policy decision-making. The results are compared to three principles for good systemic modeling to support public policy, established by the authors: the model must a) be readable and manageable —to a basic level— by non-experts, b) require as little quantitative data as possible, and c) not generate spurious or ambiguous readings of their content or their outputs. To identify modeling patterns the models were subjected to a content analysis under eleven different categories. To depict the possible co-occurrence of these analyzed categories in order to describe different types of modeling, a multiple correspondence analysis was performed. We found different modeling patterns with a marked trend to use system modeling as a performative device to let emerging cognitively a new entity, the structure of a complex problem. Regarding our proposal for modeling public policy problems, it can be said that the modeling strategies that fit better with the proposed principles are those that were identified as qualitative and oriented to public policy.



中文翻译:

公共政策中的系统建模策略:文献评估

当代社会决策越来越依赖于知识的整合。在这种背景下,系统建模被认为是表示和分析复杂问题的直接工具。为了解决如何进行系统建模来指导和支持公共政策制定,本研究对旨在帮助公共政策决策的系统建模文献进行了简要综合。将结果与作者建立的支持公共政策的良好系统建模的三个原则进行比较:模型必须a)在基本水平上可由非专家可读和管理,b)需要尽可能少的定量数据,以及 c) 不会对其内容或输出产生虚假或模糊的解读。为了识别建模模式,对模型进行了十一个不同类别的内容分析。为了描述这些分析类别可能共现的情况,以描述不同类型的建模,进行了多重对应分析。我们发现不同的建模模式具有明显的趋势,即使用系统建模作为一种执行手段,让认知上出现一个新的实体,即复杂问题的结构。关于我们对公共政策问题建模的建议,可以说,更符合所提出原则的建模策略是那些被确定为定性且面向公共政策的策略。

更新日期:2024-01-23
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