Climate change is a major threat to ecosystems and global biodiversity, directly impacting spatial species distribution. Using a species distribution modeling approach to predict present and future spatial distributions, we estimated the effects of future global warming on the wild tropical forages and . We modeled these species distributions, considering four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios spanning years 2080–2100. Our findings suggest both species will undergo severe spatial displacement and a reduction of high-suitability areas across all temporal scenarios. Albeit some noticeable expansion into new areas, their suitability is notably low, especially under the RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Particularly, exhibits a relatively higher resilience to climate changes projected in the RCP 2.6 scenario. However, these changes rate surpasses initial predictions, placing these species at an elevated risk of extinction in the near future. Our main highlight emphasizes the conservation urgency and management strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on these tropical forage species.

中文翻译：

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气候变化影响柱花属两种野生物种的分布和适宜性

气候变化是对生态系统和全球生物多样性的重大威胁，直接影响空间物种分布。使用物种分布建模方法来预测当前和未来的空间分布，我们估计了未来全球变暖对野生热带牧草的影响。我们对这些物种分布进行了建模，考虑了 2080 年至 2100 年的四种代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 情景。我们的研究结果表明，这两个物种都将经历严重的空间位移，并且在所有时间情景中高适宜性区域都会减少。尽管对新领域进行了一些明显的扩展，但它们的适用性明显较低，特别是在 RCP 6.0 和 RCP 8.5 场景下。特别是，在 RCP 2.6 情景中预测的气候变化表现出相对较高的恢复能力。然而，这些变化速度超出了最初的预测，使这些物种在不久的将来面临灭绝的风险。我们的主要亮点强调了保护的紧迫性和管理策略，以减轻气候变化对这些热带饲料物种的影响。