Scientific Reports ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2023-12-27 , DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-49353-1 Audrey Minière , Karina von Schuckmann , Jean-Baptiste Sallée , Linus Vogt
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Global heating of the Earth system is unequivocal. However, detecting an acceleration of Earth heating has remained elusive to date, despite suggestive evidence of a potential increase in heating rates. In this study, we demonstrate that since 1960, the warming of the world ocean has accelerated at a relatively consistent pace of 0.15 ± 0.05 (W/m2)/decade, while the land, cryosphere, and atmosphere have exhibited an accelerated pace of 0.013 ± 0.003 (W/m2)/decade. This has led to a substantial increase in ocean warming, with a magnitude of 0.91 ± 0.80 W/m2 between the decades 1960–1970 and 2010–2020, which overlies substantial decadal-scale variability in ocean warming of up to 0.6 W/m2. Our findings withstand a wide range of sensitivity analyses and are consistent across different observation-based datasets. The long-term acceleration of Earth warming aligns qualitatively with the rise in CO2 concentrations and the decline in aerosol concentration during the same period, but further investigations are necessary to properly attribute these changes.
中文翻译:
过去六十年观测到的地球系统加热的强劲加速
地球系统的全球变暖是明确的。然而,尽管有暗示证据表明加热速率可能增加,但迄今为止,检测地球加热加速仍然难以捉摸。在这项研究中,我们证明,自 1960 年以来,世界海洋变暖以 0.15 ± 0.05 (W/m 2 )/十年的相对稳定的速度加速,而陆地、冰冻圈和大气则呈现出 0.15 ± 0.05 (W/m 2 )/十年的加速速度。 0.013 ± 0.003 (W/m 2 )/十年。这导致海洋变暖大幅增加,1960-1970年和2010-2020年间海洋变暖幅度达到0.91 ± 0.80 W/m 2 ,覆盖了海洋变暖的十年尺度变化高达0.6 W/m 2 2 .我们的研究结果经受住了广泛的敏感性分析,并且在不同的基于观察的数据集中是一致的。地球变暖的长期加速与同期CO 2浓度的上升和气溶胶浓度的下降在性质上是一致的,但需要进一步的研究来正确归因这些变化。




















































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