The Horn of Africa Drylands are increasingly experiencing severe droughts, which impose a threat on traditional livelihood strategies. Understanding adaptation behavior in rural communities is key to helping reduce the impact of these droughts. We investigate adaptation behavior by assessing four established economic and social psychological theories on decision making under risk: expected utility theory (EUT), rank dependent utility theory (RDU), protection motivation theory (PMT), and theory of planned behavior (PMT). To measure adaptation behavior and the theory constructs, we conducted a household survey in Kenya (N = 502). Regression analysis shows that the economic theories (EUT and RDU) have the best fit for our data. Risk and time preferences are found to play an important role in adaptation decisions. An analysis of differences in decision making for distinct types of adaptation measures shows that risk averse (agro-)pastoralists are more likely to implement adaptation measures that are adjustments to their current livelihood practices, and less willing to invest in adaptation measures that require a shift to other livelihood activities. Moreover, we find significant effects for elements of the social psychological theories (PMT and TPB). A person's belief in their own ability to implement an adaptation measure (perceived self-efficacy) and adaptation by family and friends are important factors in explaining adaptation decisions. Finally, we find that the type of adaptation measures that people implement is influenced by, among others, gender, education level, access to financial resources, and access to government support or aid. Our analysis gives insights into the drivers of individual adaptation decisions, which can enhance policies promoting adaptation of dryland communities.

中文翻译：

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评估干旱风险适应的关键行为理论：来自肯尼亚农村的证据

非洲之角旱地正日益遭受严重干旱，这对传统的生计战略构成了威胁。了解农村社区的适应行为是帮助减少干旱影响的关键。我们通过评估四种关于风险决策的既定经济和社会心理学理论来研究适应行为：预期效用理论（EUT）、等级依赖效用理论（RDU）、保护动机理论（PMT）和计划行为理论（PMT）。为了衡量适应行为和理论构建，我们在肯尼亚进行了一项家庭调查（N  = 502）。回归分析表明经济理论（EUT 和 RDU）最适合我们的数据。研究发现风险和时间偏好在适应决策中发挥着重要作用。对不同类型适应措施决策差异的分析表明，规避风险的（农）牧民更有可能实施对其当前生计做法进行调整的适应措施，而不太愿意投资于需要转变的适应措施到其他民生活动。此外，我们发现社会心理学理论（PMT 和 TPB）的要素具有显着影响。一个人对自己实施适应措施的能力（自我效能感）以及家人和朋友的适应能力的信念是解释适应决策的重要因素。最后，我们发现人们实施的适应措施类型受到性别、教育水平、获得财政资源以及获得政府支持或援助等因素的影响。我们的分析深入了解了个人适应决策的驱动因素，这可以加强促进旱地社区适应的政策。