Hydroclimatic stresses can negatively impact crop production via water deficits (low soil water supply and high atmospheric demand) or surpluses (high soil water supply and low atmospheric demand). However, the impact of both stresses on crop yields at regional scales is not well understood. Here we quantified yield sensitivities and corresponding spatio-temporal yield losses of US rainfed maize, soybeans, sorghum, and spring wheat to hydroclimatic stresses by considering the joint impacts of root-zone soil moisture and atmospheric evaporative demand from 1981 to 2020. We show that crop yields can be reduced similarly by two major hydroclimatic hazards, which are defined as the most yield damaging conditions over time: ‘Low Supply + High Demand’ and ‘High Supply + Low Demand’. However, more exposure to ‘Low Supply + High Demand’ hazard led to the largest annual yield losses (7%–17%) across all four crops over time. Modeled yield losses due to these hazards were significantly associated with crop insurance lost costs. The extent of yield losses varies considerably by crop and location, highlighting the need for crop-specific and regionally tailored adaptation strategies.

中文翻译：

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水文气候灾害导致美国农作物减产


水文气候胁迫可通过缺水（土壤供水量低和大气需求量高）或盈余（土壤供水量高和大气需求量低）对作物生产产生负面影响。然而，这两种压力对区域尺度作物产量的影响尚不清楚。在此，我们通过考虑 1981 年至 2020 年根区土壤湿度和大气蒸发需求的联合影响，量化了美国雨养玉米、大豆、高粱和春小麦对水文气候胁迫的产量敏感性和相应的时空产量损失。我们表明两种主要的水文气候灾害也会类似地降低作物产量，这两种灾害被定义为随着时间的推移对产量影响最大的条件：“低供应+高需求”和“高供应+低需求”。然而，随着时间的推移，更多地暴露于“低供应+高需求”风险导致所有四种作物的年产量损失最大（7%–17%）。由于这些危害造成的模拟产量损失与农作物保险损失成本显着相关。产量损失的程度因作物和地点的不同而有很大差异，这突出表明需要针对特定​​作物和区域制定适应策略。