Children tend to overestimate their performance on a variety of tasks and activities. The present meta-analysis examines the specificity of this phenomenon across age, tasks, and more than five decades of historical time (1968–2021). Self-overestimation was operationalized as the ratio between children's prospective self-estimates of task performance and their actual (i.e., objectively measured) task performance. A total of 246 effect sizes from 43 published articles were analyzed (4277 participants; 49.6% girls; sample mean ages range from 4 to 12; 86.0% of studies conducted in North America or Europe). Children's self-overestimation was robust across tasks, with their estimates of performance being 1.3 times their actual performance. In addition, children's self-overestimation decreased with sample age and increased with the year of data collection.

中文翻译：

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儿童对年龄、任务和历史时间表现的高估：荟萃分析

孩子们往往会高估自己在各种任务和活动中的表现。本荟萃分析考察了这种现象在不同年龄、任务和五十多年历史时间（1968-2021）中的特殊性。自我高估被具体化为儿童对任务表现的预期自我估计与其实际（即客观测量的）任务表现之间的比率。共分析了 43 篇已发表文章的 246 个效应大小（4277 名参与者；49.6% 为女孩；样本平均年龄范围为 4 至 12 岁；86.0% 的研究在北美或欧洲进行）。儿童在各种任务中都表现出强烈的自我高估，他们对表现的估计是实际表现的 1.3 倍。此外，儿童的自我高估随着样本年龄的增加而降低，并随着数据收集年份的增加而增加。