ABSTRACT

The main aim of this research is to investigate the childhood predictors of successful self-reported delinquents, defined as those who were not convicted. In the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD), 411 London males have been followed up from age 8 to age 61. Self-reported offending was measured for the whole sample for ages 10–14, 15–18, 27–32, and 42–47, for five crimes: burglary, theft of a vehicle, theft from a vehicle, shoplifting, and vandalism. The prevalence of self-reported offending was 64% at ages 10–18 and 11% at ages 27–47, compared with the prevalence of convictions of 23% and 8% respectively. Successful self-reported delinquents were defined as those who offended between ages 10 and 18 but were not convicted up to age 26; 126 successful delinquents were compared with 120 convicted delinquents. Sixteen childhood factors, including attainment, self-control, socioeconomic, parental, family and behavioural factors, predicted successful self-reported delinquents. The most important independent predictors were committing less serious and fewer offences as well as high school attainment, unconvicted parents, low risk-taking, and unseparated families.

摘要

这项研究的主要目的是调查成功自报犯罪者（定义为未定罪的人）的童年预测因素。在剑桥犯罪发展研究 (CSDD) 中，对 411 名 8 岁至 61 岁的伦敦男性进行了跟踪调查。对整个样本的 10-14 岁、15-18 岁、27-32 岁和42-47，五种犯罪：入室盗窃、盗窃车辆、盗窃车辆、入店行窃和破坏公物。10-18 岁年龄段的自我报告犯罪率为 64%，27-47 岁年龄段的自我报告犯罪率为 11%，而定罪率分别为 23% 和 8%。成功自我报告的犯罪者被定义为那些在 10 岁至 18 岁之间犯罪但在 26 岁之前未被定罪的人；126 名成功的犯罪者与 120 名被定罪的犯罪者进行了比较。十六个童年因素，包括成就、自我控制、社会经济、父母、家庭和行为因素，预测成功的自我报告的犯罪者。最重要的独立预测因素是犯罪行为较轻和较少，以及高中学历、未定罪的父母、低风险行为和不分居的家庭。