Why did Putin decide to invade Ukraine in 2022? Structural realists regard it as a preventive war with a strategic rationale in response to NATO's eastward expansion. However, as many scholars suggest, Putin's decision-making is riddled with various irrationalities, which can be better framed as overbalancing and the classical realist concept of ‘hubris’. Lawrence Freedman and others argue that a key to explaining Putin's overbalancing is applying the concept of self-deception in evolutionary psychology, which can be the scientific foundation of hubris in classical realism. Thus, Freedman's argument of Putin's self-deception and others' general theses of self-deception as a cause of overconfidence led to the introduction of self-deception into classical realism to solve the puzzle of overbalancing in international affairs. Thereby, the novel balancing concept of ‘hubris balancing’ was developed: irrationally aggressive balancing that exceeds what is achievable in practice. There are three causal pathways (cognitive, emotional and social) to hubris balancing as ideal types: overconfidence, anger and nationalism. As a plausibility probe, hubris balancing is illustrated by analysing Putin's decision to wage war against Ukraine. The result shows that, as the logic of hubris balancing suggests, driven by overconfidence and anger towards western liberalism, Putin decided to invade Ukraine by driving exclusive nationalism.

中文翻译：

---

傲慢的平衡：古典现实主义、自欺欺人和普京对乌克兰的战争

普京为何决定在2022年入侵乌克兰？结构现实主义者认为这是一场预防性战争，具有应对北约东扩的战略依据。然而，正如许多学者所说，普京的决策充满了各种非理性，这可以更好地概括为过度平衡和经典现实主义的“傲慢”概念。劳伦斯·弗里德曼等人认为，解释普京过度平衡的关键是运用进化心理学中的自欺欺人的概念，这可以成为古典现实主义中狂妄自大的科学基础。因此，弗里德曼关于普京自欺欺人的论点以及其他人将自欺欺人视为过度自信原因的一般论点，导致将自欺欺人引入古典现实主义以解决国际事务中的过度平衡难题。由此，“傲慢平衡”这一新颖的平衡概念应运而生：超出实践可实现范围的非理性侵略性平衡。将傲慢平衡为理想类型有三种因果途径（认知、情感和社会）：过度自信、愤怒和民族主义。作为一项合理性调查，通过分析普京对乌克兰发动战争的决定来说明傲慢的平衡。结果表明，正如傲慢平衡的逻辑所表明的那样，在过度自信和对西方自由主义的愤怒的驱使下，普京决定通过推动排他性民族主义来入侵乌克兰。情感和社交）到傲慢平衡为理想类型：过度自信、愤怒和民族主义。作为一项合理性调查，通过分析普京对乌克兰发动战争的决定来说明傲慢的平衡。结果表明，正如傲慢平衡的逻辑所表明的那样，在过度自信和对西方自由主义的愤怒的驱使下，普京决定通过推动排他性民族主义来入侵乌克兰。情感和社交）到傲慢平衡为理想类型：过度自信、愤怒和民族主义。作为一项合理性调查，通过分析普京对乌克兰发动战争的决定来说明傲慢的平衡。结果表明，正如傲慢平衡的逻辑所表明的那样，在过度自信和对西方自由主义的愤怒的驱使下，普京决定通过推动排他性民族主义来入侵乌克兰。