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Predicting Volunteers’ Decisions to Stay in or Quit an NGO Using Neural Networks
VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations ( IF 2.794 ) Pub Date : 2023-07-11 , DOI: 10.1007/s11266-023-00590-y
Blanca de-Miguel-Molina , Rafael Boix-Domènech , Gema Martínez-Villanueva , María de-Miguel-Molina

This paper uses non-traditional approaches to predict why volunteers remain in or quit a non-governmental organisation position. A questionnaire featuring 55 predictors was conducted via an online survey mechanism from March to May 2021. A total of 250 responses were received. The subsequent data analysis compared logistic regression and artificial neural network results, using machine-learning interpreters to explain the features which determined decisions. The results indicate greater accuracy for neural networks. According to the logistic regression results, intrinsic motivation, volunteering through an NGO and the age of volunteers influenced the intention to remain. Moreover, NGOs that offered online volunteering opportunities during the COVID-19 pandemic had higher rates of intention to remain. However, the neural network analysis, performed using the Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) method, indicated the need to consider different predictors to those identified by the logistic regression. The LIME method also enables the individualisation of the explanations of predictions, indicating the importance of considering the role of volunteers’ feelings in both quit and remain decisions, which is something that is not provided by traditional methods such as logistic regression. Furthermore, the LIME approach demonstrates that NGOs must address both volunteer management and experience to retain volunteers. Nonetheless, volunteer management is more critical to stop volunteers quitting, suggesting that volunteer integration is crucial.



中文翻译:

使用神经网络预测志愿者留在或退出非政府组织的决定

本文使用非传统方法来预测志愿者留在或退出非政府组织职位的原因。2021 年 3 月至 5 月,通过在线调查机制对 55 名预测变量进行了问卷调查,共收到 250 份回复。随后的数据分析比较了逻辑回归和人工神经网络的结果,使用机器学习解释器来解释决定决策的特征。结果表明神经网络具有更高的准确性。根据逻辑回归结果,内在动机、通过非政府组织提供志愿服务以及志愿者的年龄影响了留下来的意愿。此外,在 COVID-19 大流行期间提供在线志愿服务机会的非政府组织的留下意愿更高。然而,通过神经网络分析,使用局部可解释模型不可知的解释 (LIME) 方法执行,表明需要考虑与逻辑回归确定的预测变量不同的预测变量。LIME 方法还可以对预测的解释进行个性化,这表明在退出和留任决策中考虑志愿者感受的重要性,这是逻辑回归等传统方法无法提供的。此外,LIME 方法表明,非政府组织必须解决志愿者管理和留住志愿者的经验问题。尽管如此,志愿者管理对于阻止志愿者退出更为重要,这表明志愿者整合至关重要。表明需要考虑与逻辑回归确定的预测变量不同的预测变量。LIME 方法还可以对预测的解释进行个性化,这表明在退出和留任决策中考虑志愿者感受的重要性,这是逻辑回归等传统方法无法提供的。此外,LIME 方法表明,非政府组织必须解决志愿者管理和留住志愿者的经验问题。尽管如此,志愿者管理对于阻止志愿者退出更为重要,这表明志愿者整合至关重要。表明需要考虑与逻辑回归确定的预测变量不同的预测变量。LIME 方法还可以对预测的解释进行个性化,这表明在退出和留任决策中考虑志愿者感受的重要性,这是逻辑回归等传统方法无法提供的。此外,LIME 方法表明,非政府组织必须解决志愿者管理和留住志愿者的经验问题。尽管如此,志愿者管理对于阻止志愿者退出更为重要,这表明志愿者整合至关重要。表明在退出和留下的决定中考虑志愿者的感受的重要性,这是逻辑回归等传统方法无法提供的。此外,LIME 方法表明,非政府组织必须解决志愿者管理和留住志愿者的经验问题。尽管如此,志愿者管理对于阻止志愿者退出更为重要,这表明志愿者整合至关重要。表明在退出和留下的决定中考虑志愿者的感受的重要性,这是逻辑回归等传统方法无法提供的。此外,LIME 方法表明,非政府组织必须解决志愿者管理和留住志愿者的经验问题。尽管如此,志愿者管理对于阻止志愿者退出更为重要,这表明志愿者整合至关重要。

更新日期:2023-07-12
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