The impact of including model-averaged excess radiation risks (ER) into a measure of radiation attributed decrease of survival (RADS) for the outcome all solid cancer incidence and the impact on the uncertainties is demonstrated. It is shown that RADS applying weighted model averaged ER based on AIC weights result in smaller risk estimates with narrower 95% CI than RADS using ER based on BIC weights. Further a multi-method-multi-model inference approach is introduced that allows calculating one general RADS estimate providing a weighted average risk estimate for a lunar and a Mars mission. For males the general RADS estimate is found to be 0.42% (95% CI: 0.38%; 0.45%) and for females 0.67% (95% CI: 0.59%; 0.75%) for a lunar mission and 2.45% (95% CI: 2.23%; 2.67%) for males and 3.91% (95% CI: 3.44%; 4.39%) for females for a Mars mission considering an age at exposure of 40 years and an attained age of 65 years. It is recommended to include these types of uncertainties and to include model-averaged excess risks in astronaut risk assessment.

论证了将模型平均过量辐射风险 (ER) 纳入辐射引起的生存率降低 (RADS) 测量中对所有实体癌发病率结果的影响以及对不确定性的影响。结果表明，与使用基于 BIC 权重的 ER 的 RADS 相比，应用基于 AIC 权重的加权模型平均 ER 的 RADS 会导致更小的风险估计，且 95% CI 更窄。此外，还引入了一种多方法多模型推理方法，可以计算一个通用的 RADS 估计，为月球和火星任务提供加权平均风险估计。对于男性来说，一般 RADS 估计值为 0.42%（95% CI：0.38%；0.45%），对于女性来说，月球任务的一般 RADS 估计值为 0.67%（95% CI：0.59%；0.75%），而对于女性来说，一般 RADS 估计值为 2.45%（95% CI：0.59%；0.75%）。 ：男性为 2.23%；2.67%），男性为 3.91%（95% CI：3.44%；4. 39%）对于执行火星任务的女性来说，考虑到暴露年龄为 40 岁，达到年龄为 65 岁。建议在宇航员风险评估中纳入这些类型的不确定性，并纳入模型平均超额风险。