We use discounted cash flow analysis to measure the projected fiscal capacity of the US federal government. We apply our valuation method to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections for the US federal government's primary deficits between 2022 and 2052 and projected debt outstanding in 2052. The discount rate for projected cash flows and future debt must include a GDP or market risk premium in recognition of the risk associated with future surpluses. Despite current low interest rates, we find that US fiscal capacity is more limited than commonly thought. Because of the back-loading of projected primary surpluses, the duration of the surplus claim far exceeds the duration of the outstanding Treasury portfolio. This duration mismatch exposes the government to the risk of rising interest rates, which would trigger the need for higher tax revenue or lower spending. Reducing this risk by front-loading primary surpluses requires a major fiscal adjustment.

我们使用贴现现金流量分析来衡量美国联邦政府的预计财政能力。我们将我们的估值方法应用于国会预算办公室 (CBO) 对 2022 年至 2052 年美国联邦政府主要赤字以及 2052 年预计未偿债务的预测。预计现金流和未来债务的贴现率必须包括 GDP 或市场风险溢价认识到与未来盈余相关的风险。尽管目前利率较低，但我们发现美国的财政能力比普遍认为的更为有限。由于预计基本盈余的回填，盈余债权的久期远远超过未偿国债投资组合的久期。这种期限错配使政府面临利率上升的风险，这将引发增加税收或减少支出的需要。通过提前加载基本盈余来降低这种风险需要进行重大的财政调整。