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Identifying a scenario for preindustrial cropland cover using cultivation data: A case study of France, Germany and Italy
Anthropocene ( IF 3.6 ) Pub Date : 2023-06-12 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ancene.2023.100388
Diyang Zhang , Yujie Lu , Xiuqi Fang , Yu Ye , Chengpeng Zhang , Xue Zheng

Cropland expansion is effected by physiogeographic and sociocultural factors, which vary across region and over time, but have not been adequately represented in large-scale anthropogenic land cover change scenarios. Taking preindustrial cropland expansion in France, Germany, and Italy as a case study, this study first adopted a productivity-based estimation of cropland per capita, which converted crop yield to cropland demand per capita through negative correlations under different crop rotations, to improve the accuracy of national cropland areas. Then, a new allocation algorithm was proposed to allocate national cropland areas into 5′× 5′ grids. The algorithm combines land suitability, which characterizes regional differentiation of potential productivity indicated by physiogeographic factors (climate, topography, soil, etc.) that dominate cultivation, and cultivation preference, which quantifies sociocultural impacts by kernel density estimation based on city information (i.e., location, size, accessibility). The cropland cover scenario here shows similar phases but different modes of cropland expansion in these countries: (1) National cropland areas increased 1.73–2.46 times during the 11th–13th centuries, manifested by the expanding cultivated ranges in France and Germany and the increasing cultivation intensity in Italy. (2) National cropland fractions decreased by 9.16–19.98 percentage points in the 14th century, accompanied by widespread reductions in cultivation intensity. (3) Cropland gradually recovered toward its peak in 1300 AD during the 15th–18th centuries, achieved by general and remarkable increases in cultivation intensity. Compared to representative global datasets, this study is more consistent with cultivation-related descriptions in the literature, especially with respect to the cropland expansion in newly cultivated regions and on marginal lands.



中文翻译:

使用耕作数据确定工业化前农田覆盖的情景:法国、德国和意大利的案例研究

耕地扩张受自然地理和社会文化因素的影响,这些因素因地区和时间而异,但在大规模人为土地覆盖变化情景中并未得到充分体现。本研究以法国、德国和意大利工业化前的耕地扩张为例,首先采用基于生产率的人均耕地估算,通过不同轮作条件下的负相关将作物产量转化为人均耕地需求,以提高人均耕地需求。全国耕地面积的准确性。然后,提出了一种新的分配算法,将全国耕地面积分配到5'×5'的网格中。该算法结合了土地适宜性,土地适宜性表征了自然地理因素(气候、地形、土壤等)所指示的潜在生产力的区域分异。) 主导种植和种植偏好,它通过基于城市信息(即位置、大小、可达性)的核密度估计来量化社会文化影响。这里的耕地覆盖情景显示了这些国家耕地扩张的阶段相似但模式不同:(1)11-13 世纪全国耕地面积增加了 1.73-2.46 倍,表现为法国和德国耕地范围扩大和耕地面积增加意大利的强度。(2) 全国耕地比例在 14 世纪下降了 9.16-19.98 个百分点,伴随着耕作强度的普遍下降。(3) 农田在 15-18 世纪逐渐恢复到公元 1300 年的顶峰,这是通过耕作强度的普遍显着增加实现的。

更新日期:2023-06-12
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