The multi-faceted emergencies of our time (recession, pandemics, and international conflict) can disrupt progress towards sustainable development goals (SDGs). While climate-economy models can show pathways out of these disruptions, numerous stakeholder-informed enhancements are required to navigate through the interconnected SDG landscape. We introduce a novel Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) approach that integrates Monte Carlo simulations, aiming to capture and understand the differences among modellers' and experts' perceptions of the impacts of such crises on broader sustainability, considering models’ existing/planned capacity and uncertainty over perceived magnitude and propagation of impacts across SDGs. Our application shows that expert stakeholders appeared more concerned over the implications of these crises for sustainable development than modellers, but expectations were considerably constrained by model capabilities. SDGs 8 (growth), 7 (energy-sector sustainability), and 13 (climate action) were robustly found as most prone to examined shocks. Our proposed Monte Carlo Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (MCFCM) approach also highlighted potentially important propagation effects as well as gaps in integrated assessment model capabilities to holistically study the SDG spectrum.

我们这个时代的多方面紧急情况（经济衰退、流行病和国际冲突）可能会破坏实现可持续发展目标 (SDG) 的进展。虽然气候经济模型可以显示出摆脱这些破坏的途径，但需要大量利益相关者知情的改进才能在相互关联的可持续发展目标格局中导航。我们介绍一本小说模糊认知地图 (FCM) 方法集成了蒙特卡罗模拟，旨在捕捉和理解建模者和专家对此类危机对更广泛可持续性影响的看法的差异，同时考虑模型的现有/计划能力以及感知幅度和不确定性跨可持续发展目标传播影响。我们的应用表明，专家利益相关者似乎比建模者更关心这些危机对可持续发展的影响，但期望受到模型能力的很大限制。可持续发展目标 8（增长）、7（能源部门的可持续性）和 13（气候行动）被认为最容易受到冲击的影响。