Modelling crop yield loss due to pathogens remains a challenge due to the complex and dynamic interactions involved. Here, we develop a parsimonious dynamic yield loss simulation model that couples a simple epidemiological model of late blight disease with a basic model of potato crop growth. The model is parameterized using 17 years of field data on disease progress of potato late blight and potato yield in southern Sweden. Simulated actual yields (yields obtained under the presence of Phytopthora infestans) correlated well (R² = 0.66) with the actual yields observed in field trials, using a few widely accessible meteorological variables. The results also underline the impact of disease growth rate and the time of infection on yield losses, with relatively low rates and early onset of the epidemic producing large yield reductions. In addition, the importance of increasing temperature due to climate change on both potato crop and Phytophthora infestans development was simulated, suggesting that higher temperatures may be more detrimental for the pathogen than for the crop. Additional ways to expand the model are discussed, and the inclusion of other diseases and pests are encouraged, indicating the potential to improve disease management in potato production.

由于涉及复杂和动态的相互作用，对病原体造成的作物产量损失进行建模仍然是一个挑战。在这里，我们开发了一个简约的动态产量损失模拟模型，该模型将晚疫病的简单流行病学模型与马铃薯作物生长的基本模型相结合。该模型使用 17 年关于瑞典南部马铃薯晚疫病病害进展和马铃薯产量的田间数据进行参数化。模拟的实际产量（在致病疫霉存在下获得的产量）相关性很好（R ²= 0.66) 与在田间试验中观察到的实际产量，使用一些广泛使用的气象变量。结果还强调了疾病生长速度和感染时间对产量损失的影响，相对较低的感染率和早发的流行病会导致产量大幅下降。此外，还模拟了气候变化导致温度升高对马铃薯作物和致病疫霉发展的重要性，表明较高的温度对病原体的危害可能大于对作物的危害。讨论了扩展模型的其他方法，并鼓励纳入其他病虫害，表明在马铃薯生产中改善病害管理的潜力。