Pavement researchers typically adopt life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) to quantify changes in the economic performance of road pavements due to the effects of climate change. As uncertainty exists in the unit cost of materials, fuels, and machinery operation, the assessment of climate change-induced pavement costs invariably involves uncertainty. If such uncertainties remain unaddressed, the assessment of pavement costs will not be accurate. Therefore, this study develops a stochastic pavement LCCA framework to account for the effects of such uncertainties on climate change-induced pavement life cycle cost. This is achieved by integrating a sensitivity analysis methodology and Monte Carlo simulation. To demonstrate the applicability of the framework case studies are performed for standard interstate and standard primary road pavement sections in four climate zones in the United States under a high climate change Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) for four different periods between 1981 and 2100. The results show that pavement maintenance, end-of-life (EOL), and transportation costs are most affected by climate change. To assess climate change-induced pavement costs more accurately, it is important to improve the accuracy of gasoline, diesel, and hot mix asphalt (HMA) unit costs, as they are the most sensitive input to the pavement LCCA model.

路面研究人员通常采用生命周期成本分析 (LCCA) 来量化由于气候变化的影响而导致的路面经济性能的变化。由于材料、燃料和机械操作的单位成本存在不确定性，气候变化引起的路面成本评估不可避免地涉及不确定性。如果此类不确定性仍未得到解决，则路面成本的评估将不准确。因此，本研究开发了一个随机路面 LCCA 框架，以解释此类不确定性对气候变化引起的路面生命周期成本的影响。这是通过整合敏感性分析方法和蒙特卡洛模拟来实现的。为了证明该框架的适用性，在 1981 年至 2100 年的四个不同时期，在高气候变化代表性浓度路径 (RCP8.5) 下，对美国四个气候区的标准州际公路和标准主要道路路面部分进行了案例研究。结果表明，路面维护、报废 (EOL) 和运输成本受气候变化的影响最大。为了更准确地评估气候变化引起的路面成本，提高汽油、柴油和热拌沥青 (HMA) 单位成本的准确性非常重要，因为它们是路面 LCCA 模型最敏感的输入。结果表明，路面维护、报废 (EOL) 和运输成本受气候变化的影响最大。为了更准确地评估气候变化引起的路面成本，提高汽油、柴油和热拌沥青 (HMA) 单位成本的准确性非常重要，因为它们是路面 LCCA 模型最敏感的输入。结果表明，路面维护、报废 (EOL) 和运输成本受气候变化的影响最大。为了更准确地评估气候变化引起的路面成本，提高汽油、柴油和热拌沥青 (HMA) 单位成本的准确性非常重要，因为它们是路面 LCCA 模型最敏感的输入。