This study provides estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. agricultural yields and the agricultural economy through the end of the 21st century, utilizing multiple climate scenarios. Results from a process-based crop model project future increases in wheat, grassland, and soybean yield due to climate change and atmospheric CO₂ change; corn and sorghum show more muted responses. Results using yields from econometric models show less positive results. Both the econometric and process-based models tend to show more positive yields by the end of the century than several other similar studies. Using the process-based model to provide future yield estimates to an integrated agricultural sector model, the welfare gain is roughly $16B/year (2019 USD) for domestic producers and $6.2B/year for international trade, but domestic consumers lose $10.6B/year, resulting in a total welfare gain of $11.7B/year. When yield projections for major crops are drawn instead from econometric models, total welfare losses of more than $28B/year arise. Simulations using the process-based model as input to the agricultural sector model show large future production increases for soybean, wheat, and sorghum and large price reductions for corn and wheat. The most important factors are those about economic growth, flooding, international trade, and the type of yield model used. Somewhat less, but not insignificant factors include adaptation, livestock productivity, and damages from surface ozone, waterlogging, and pests and diseases.

本研究利用多种气候情景，估算了到 21 世纪末气候变化对美国农业产量和农业经济的影响。基于过程的作物模型预测由于气候变化和大气中的 CO _{2未来小麦、草地和大豆产量增加的结果}改变; 玉米和高粱表现出更柔和的反应。使用计量经济学模型收益率的结果显示不太积极的结果。到本世纪末，计量经济学模型和基于过程的模型往往比其他几项类似研究显示出更多的正收益。使用基于过程的模型为综合农业部门模型提供未来产量估计，国内生产者的福利收益约为 $16B/年（2019 美元），国际贸易为 $6.2B/年，但国内消费者损失 $10.6B/年，导致总福利收益为 $11.7B/年。当主要作物的产量预测取自计量经济学模型时，总福利损失超过 $28B/年。使用基于过程的模型作为农业部门模型的输入的模拟显示大豆、小麦、和高粱以及玉米和小麦的大幅降价。最重要的因素是经济增长、洪水、国际贸易和使用的产量模型类型。一些较少但并非微不足道的因素包括适应性、牲畜生产力以及地表臭氧、水涝和病虫害造成的损害。